Quantitative Analysis of the Blocking Effect of High-tech Industry Development on Premature Deindustrialization in China
In recent years,the proportion of China's manufacturing industry has been declining,leading to an issue of premature deindustrialization.Therefor based on the concept of innovation-driven development,this paper explores the blocking effect of high-tech industry development on premature deindustrialization and its mechanism from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Theoretical analysis shows that the development of high-tech industries can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry,enhance the attractiveness of manufacturing investment and employment,and hinder premature deindustrialization.Its mechanism has two aspects.On the one hand,by promoting the scale expansion of manufacturing industry and driving the development of modem service industry,avoid the excessive flow of labor into traditional service industry,that is to restrain the reverse Kuznets;on the other hand,by inhibiting the excessive development of the virtual economy,prevent the real economy from being sidelined.Furthermore,using the data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2021,the proportion of industrial added value is used as the proxy variable of deindustrialization,the proportion of main business income of high-tech industries in industrial added value is used as the representative variable of high-tech industry development level,through the regulatory effect test model with an inverted U-shaped curve,the transfer share tool variables to overcome the endogeneity problem are constructed,and the replacement explanatory variable is the proportion of real economy,and by replacing the explanatory variable as the proportion of the real economy,and the explanatory variable as the ratio of labor productivity in the secondary and tertiary industries,the blocking effect of high-tech industry development on premature deindustrialization is examined.The empirical results show that,the development of high-tech industries can shift the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve of industrial proportion changes with per capita GDP to the right,and make the curve smoother;the development of high-tech industries can block premature deindustrialization by suppressing reverse Kuznetsization and the excessive development of the virtual economy.
high-tech industrydeindustrializationreverse Kuznetsizationseparated from the real economytransforming and upgrading of the manufacturing industry
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