Dynamic Relationship Between Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation,Eco-efficiency,and the Quality of Farmers'Income Increase:Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model
Amid the global emphasis on sustainable agricultural development,exploring the interrelationships between agricultural technological innovation,ecological efficiency,and the quality of farmers'income growth is vital for advancing agricultural modernization and improving farmer welfare.However,while improving the yield and quality of agricultural products,agricultural science and technology innovation also faces the dilemma of increasing farmers'income,and the improvement of ecological efficiency may also cause the problem of farmers'income inequality.In view of this,in order to further explore the relationship between the level of agricultural science and technology innovation,ecological efficiency,and farmers'income increase,this paper selects the agricultural sector of Hunan province from 2000 to 2020 as the research subject,and employs the VAR model as the primary analytical tool to investigate the long-term dynamics among these three key variables.Methodologically,the paper employs cointegration testing to determine the long-term stable relationships between variables,and uses Granger causality analysis to identify the directions and extents of influence among variables,and adopts variance decomposition to assess the contribution of each variable to the system's dynamics.The research data is derived from official statistics and surveys of Hunan province,which have been appropriately transformed and standardized for analysis.The findings indicate that after considering endogeneity and potential dynamic interactions between variables,there is a significant bidirectional positive relationship between agricultural technological innovation and the quality of farmers'income,suggesting that technological innovation is both a driving force behind and a result of improved income quality.However,the improvement of ecological efficiency has not been significantly transformed into the economic benefits of farmers in the short term,while the impact of agricultural science and technology innovation on the quality of farmers'income increase is immediate and significant,and tends to stabilize over time.Moreover,when predicting the quality of farmers'income increase,the role of agricultural science and technology innovation obviously exceeds the ecological efficiency.The conclusions highlight the importance of formulating targeted policies.It is recommended that government should enhance ecological efficiency and advance agricultural technology innovation through developing policies and making investment,while also raising farmers'awareness and capability regarding eco-environmental protection.By doing that,it is expected to achieve sustainable and quality growth in farmers'income while improving ecological efficiency.
agricultural technological innovationecological efficiencyfarmers'incomequality of income growth for farmersVAR modelsustainable agricultural development
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