The Driving Factors of Catch-up in Complex Product Systems Based on the Fusion of Programmatic Grounded Theory and System Dynamics
Complex product systems(CoPS)include high-value products,capital goods,control systems,networks and civil engineering constructs.In a more specific way,they refer to over 80 types of one-off projects(or small-batches),in-cluding telecommunications exchanges,flight simulators,aircraft engines,avionics systems,train engines,air traffic con-trol units,systems for electricity grids,offshore oil equipment,intelligent buildings,and cellular phone network equip-ment.CoPS bears the linkage-driven characteristics of technological complexity and engineering intensity.Achieving tech-nological breakthroughs can drive the development of related industries.In recent years,China has successfully developed the C919 mainline passenger aircraft,the"Fuxing"standard electric multiple unit,and the third-generation independent nuclear power technology"Guohe No.1".These achievements have proven that China has been transformed from a"follo-wer"to a"parallel"or"leader"in some CoPS fields;however,there are bottlenecks in some key technologies and the re-lated CoPS are in a dilemma,such as lithography machines and heavy-duty gas turbines,which are blockaded by the first-mover countries.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth exploration of the key driving factors of catch-up so as to formulate effective catch-up strategies.The catch-up process in the field of CoPS shows that the successful catch-up of latecomers is driven by multiple fac-tors.The existing studies have used case study methods to explore how the CoPS achieve latecomer catch-up and why they can realize catch-up development,but there are still deficiencies.For one thing,the differentiated role of diversity factors in the catch-up process makes it difficult for latecomers to grasp the key driving factors in different catch-up stages;for an-other,single case studies are unable to make relatively accurate quantitative judgments and reveal the differential effects of these common driving factors at different stages of catching up in CoPS,thereby affecting the formulation and implemen-tation of catch-up strategies.This study collects second-hand data,including policy data,enterprise data,and literature on the catch-up research of three typical CoPS in China,namely large aircraft,nuclear power,and high-speed rail,from 2013 to 2022 for grounded re-search on the identification of the driving factors of catch-up in CoPS.Causal relationship analysis can clearly present the connections between different factors,which is the basis of system dynamics simulation.Specifically,technology acquisi-tion strategies and organizational management capabilities directly affect the technological catch-up of CoPS,and the faster the technological catch-up,the larger the institutional market size,thereby accelerating market catch-up,while market catch-up is directly influenced by the size of institutional markets,competition in institutional markets,and the develop-ment of institutional markets.On the basis of the above factors,a system dynamics model of the driving factors of catch-up in CoPS is constructed and simulated.The results show that CoPS in China are in different catch-up stages,and the catch-up process is driven by different key factors.At the follow-up stage,the whole nation system,secondary innovation,and integrated innovation are key driving factors of catch-up.At the parallel stage,institution-driven market explore,individual research,integrated inno-vation constitute key driving factors for catch-up.At the beyond catch-up stage,institution-driven market size,individual research and the whole nation system constitute key driving factors of catch-up.Thus,it is proposed to comprehensively promote the strategy of independent research and development,expand the advantages of the new system for mobilizing resources nationwide,especially for the CoPS that are in the follow-up and parallel stages,establish project organizations directly led by national agencies and coordinate system integrators,suppliers,universities,and research institutions to carry out joint research and development.This study integrates programmatic grounded theory and system dynamics methods to explore the driving factors of late catching up in CoPS.On the one hand,it enriches the understanding of the laws of late catch-up in CoPS,and on the other hand,it identifies the key driving factors through quantitative analysis,providing a basis for the formulation of late catch-up strategies.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
