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2010-2022年宁波镇海区雷电灾害特征分析

Analysis of Lightning Disaster Characteristics in Ningbo Zhenhai District from 2010 to 2022

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为揭示雷电灾害分布特点和发生规律,科学有效指导防灾减灾工作,本文利用2010-2022年宁波镇海区雷电灾害统计资料及闪电定位监测数据,采用数理统计、GIS地理信息技术,分析研究辖区雷电灾害和地闪活动时空分布特征,以期为辖区防雷减灾工作提供重要科学参考依据.研究表明:2010-2022年镇海区共发生雷电灾害事故91起,地闪频次21 130次;年雷电灾害起数、雷暴日、地闪次数三者不呈简单的对应关系,之间未有规律可循;月际变化比较一致,呈明显单峰分布,均在7月达到峰值,且在11月各项指标均有小幅抬升;6~9月份雷灾事故起数占全年82.42%,直接经济损失占94.67%,地闪频次占94.90%,雷灾起数、直接经济损失月际变化与地闪活动密切相关;雷电灾害呈点状分散分布特点,与地闪密度高值区二者在中部地区有一定重合,地闪密度均值3.56 次/(a·km2),最大值9.59 次/(a·km2);以负地闪为主,10~20 kA雷电流概率最高,达31.16%,正地闪强度幅值分布集中程度相对较低,80 kA以上雷电流累积概率,正地闪略高于负地闪.行业分布上,农林牧渔(农居家电)受灾最为严重,占比52.75%,农村地区、先进制造业雷电防御应重点关注.该研究结果以期为辖区各部门在推动雷电灾害防御管理和改进雷电灾害防御技术等方面提供参考依据.
In order to reveal the distribution characteristics and occurrence patterns of lightning disasters,scientifically and effectively guide disaster prevention and reduction work,the statistical data of lightning disasters and lightning lo-cation monitoring data in Ningbo Zhenhai district from 2010 to 2022 were used.Mathematical statistics and GIS geo-graphic information technology were used to analyze and study the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of light-ning disasters and ground lightning activities in the jurisdiction,in order to provide important scientific reference for the lightning prevention and reduction work in the jurisdiction.Research shows that from 2010 to 2022,a total of 91 lightning disasters occurred in Zhenhai District,with a frequency of 21 130 ground flashes;There is no simple corre-sponding relationship among the number of annual lightning disasters,thunderstorm days,and ground lightning fre-quency,and there is no rule to follow between them;The monthly variation is relatively consistent,showing a clear single peak distribution,reaching its peak in July,and all indicators have slightly increased in November;The num-ber of lightning accidents from June to September accounted for 82.42%of the year,direct economic losses accounted for 94.67%,and ground flash frequency accounted for 94.90%.The number of thunderstorms and the monthly changes in direct economic losses are closely related to ground flash activity;The lightning disaster is characterized by a scat-tered distribution of points,which overlaps with the high value area of ground lightning density in the central region to a certain extent.The average ground lightning density is 3.56 times/(a·km2),and the maximum value is 9.59 times/(a·km2);The main type is negative ground lightning,with the highest probability of 10-20 kA lightning current reaching 31.16%.The concentration of positive ground lightning intensity amplitude distribution is relatively low,and the cumulative probability of lightning current above 80 kA is slightly higher than negative ground lightning.In terms of industry distribution,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishing(agricultural household appliances)are the most severely affected,accounting for 52.75%.Rural areas and advanced manufacturing industries should focus on lightning protection.The research results aim to provide reference basis for various departments in the jurisdiction to promote lightning disaster prevention management and improve lightning disaster prevention technology.

lightning disasterground flashfeatures analysisNingbo Zhenhai district

刘威、欧阳霖、项馨仪

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宁波市镇海区气象局,浙江 宁波 315206

南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院,南京 210044

宁波市气象安全技术中心,浙江 宁波 315012

雷电灾害 地闪 特征分析 宁波镇海区

宁波市气象局科技项目宁波市镇海区公益类科技计划

NBQX2022003B镇科[2021]15号

2024

科技通报
浙江省科学技术协会

科技通报

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:0.457
ISSN:1001-7119
年,卷(期):2024.40(4)
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