城际铁路综合客运枢纽停车设施预测研究
Research on Passenger Flow and Parking Facilities Forecast of Inter-city Rail Integrated Passenger Transport Hub
王国娟 1张笑菊 2魏照坤 3张瑞1
作者信息
- 1. 西安交通工程学院 交通运输学院,西安 710300
- 2. 北京工商大学 电商与物流学院,北京 100048
- 3. 山东科技大学 交通学院,青岛 266590
- 折叠
摘要
本文以江苏省淮安市洪泽站综合客运枢纽为例,对小型旅游城市城际铁路综合客运枢纽客流及停车设施进行预测研究.首先,以回归分析法和趋势外推法为基础模型,构建了同时考虑时间因素和主成分因素的城际铁路综合客运枢纽客流预测模型;其次,根据预测模型对洪泽站客流量、对外发送客流量、交通集散方式、各交通方式客流量进行预测;最后,根据预测客流量进一步预测出综合交通枢纽主要停车设施规模.结果表明:洪泽站综合客运枢纽大型停车位预测值为133个、机动车停车位预测值为323个,非机动车停车位预测值为300个.
Abstract
The study takes Jiangsu Huai'an Hongze Station as an example to predict the passenger flow and parking fa-cilities of Inter-city rail integrated passenger transport hub in small tourist cities.Firstly,based on the regression anal-ysis method and trend extrapolation model,a passenger flow forecasting model of Inter-city rail integrated passenger transport hub is constructed considering both time factors and principal component factors;secondly,based on the pre-diction model,the passenger flow of Hongze Station,outbound passenger flow,transportation distribution methods,and passenger flow of various transportation modes were predicted;finally,based on the predicted passenger flow,the number and scale of the main transportation facilities in the comprehensive transportation hub can be further predicted.The results show that the predicted number of large parking spaces at the Hongze Station comprehensive passenger hub is 133,the predicted number of motor vehicle parking spaces is 323,and the predicted number of non motor vehicle parking spaces is 300.
关键词
城际铁路/综合客运枢纽/客流/停车设施/预测Key words
intercity railway/integrated passenger transport hub/passenger flow/parking facilities/prediction引用本文复制引用
基金项目
陕西省高等学校青年创新团队(城市轨道交通道床关键技术创新团队)项目()
北京市教委社会科学研究一般项目(SM202010011008)
陕西省艺术科学规划项目(2022)(2022HZ1667)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据