Performance Evaluation and Establishment of a 1 km Resolution Numerical Forecasting System in Zhejiang Province
Based on the WRF-ARW4.0.2 and the grid statistical interpolation analysis system GSIv3.4,a 1 km resolu-tion numerical forecasting system for Zhejiang province(Zhejiang high-resolution rapid refresh system,ZJHRRR)with hourly updates was established by using NDOWN technology to meet the demand for short-term refined forecasting and nowcasting in Zhejiang province.ZJHRRR has achieved downward nesting from 9 km resolution forecast covering the asia pacific region to 3 km resolution forecast covering the eastern region of China,and then downward nesting to 1 km resolution forecast covering the Zhejiang region.The analysis and evaluation of typical cases and batch return tests show that ZJHRRR can better predict the evolution process of the occurrence,development,maturity and extinction of the precipitation system during the heavy rainfall.Compared with the previous operational Zhejiang WRF-ADAS rapid refresh system(ZJWARRS),ZJHRRR showed better prediction ability at different precipitation class and spatial neighborhood scale,in which the threat score(TS)of 24 h and 3 h heavy rainfall prediction of ZJHRRR has increased by 61.95%and 44.91%,respectively.Compared to ZJWARRS,the temperature of ZJHRRR at each moment is closer to the actual situation,and the root mean square error(RMSE)of ZJHRRR predicted daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature has decreased by 8.4%and 5.4%,respectively.
numerical predictionrapid refresh1-kilometer resolutionverification and evaluationZhejiang
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
