宁波市春夏季短时强降水特征及物理量指标研究

Research on Characteristics and Physical Parameters of Short-duration Heavy Rain in Ningbo City in Spring and Summer

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维普
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中文摘要：本文利用2006-2020年3-9月小时降水数据、常规观测资料及逐小时再分析数据(ERA5),统计分析宁波市春夏季(除梅雨、台风)短时强降水的时空分布特征,研究其天气形势分型和物理量参数预报预警指标.结果表明:宁波市春夏季短时强降水发生频次中西部高于东部,降水强度东部沿海最强;短时强降水8月降水频次最高,且多出现在午后到傍晚(14-19时).高空槽型、副高控制型和副高边缘型是影响宁波短时强降水的主要天气分型,不同分型下的短时强降水空间分布差异较大.物理量参数预报预警指标为PW≥58.7 mm、925 hPa比湿≥15.9 g/kg、850 hPa比湿≥8.3 g/kg、K≥35.7℃、BLI≤-2℃、SI≤-0.21℃、SWEAT≥215.8,并通过个例验证了其应用价值.

外文摘要：Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the short-duration heavy rain in Ningbo City in spring and summer(except during the Meiyu season and typhoon impact period)were analyzed,and the weather classification and forecast warning indexes of physical quantity parameters were studied with hourly precipitation data,conventional observation data and hourly reanalysis data(ERA5)from March to September from 2006 to 2020.The results show that the frequency of short-duration heavy rain in spring and summer in the central and western part of Ningbo City was higher than that in the east,and the precipitation intensity was the strongest in the eastern coastal area;The frequency of short-duration heavy rain was the highest in August,short-duration heavy rain mainly occurs from the afternoon to the evening(14-19 o'clock).The high-level trough type,subtropical high control type and subtropical high edge type were the main weather classifications affecting short-duration heavy rain in Ningbo City,the spatial distribution of short-duration heavy rain in different weather classifications shows quite different.The forecast and early warning indicators of physical quantity parameters are PW≥58.7 mm,925 hPa specific wet≥15.9 g/kg,850 hPa specific wet≥8.3 g/kg,K≥35.7℃,BLI≤-2℃,SI≤-0.21℃,SWEAT≥215.8,and its application value has been verified through individual cases.

外文关键词：

Ningbo Cityshort-duration heavy raintemporal and spatial distributionweather situation classificationphysical parameter indicators

作者：

舒璐、俞科爱、顾小丽、丁仁智、张嘉荣、雅森江·库尔班

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作者单位：

宁波市海曙区气象局,浙江宁波 315153

宁波市气象局,浙江宁波 315012

民航华东空管局气象中心,上海 200335

新疆气象服务中心,乌鲁木齐 830000

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关键词：

宁波市短时强降水时空分布天气分型物理量参数指标

基金：

浙江省气象科技计划项目青年科技项目宁波市自然科学基金项目宁波市自然科学基金项目新疆气象局面上项目

项目编号：

2021QN262021J0012022J001MS202306

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.13774/j.cnki.kjtb.2024.10.001

科技通报

浙江省科学技术协会

科技通报

CSTPCDCHSSCD

影响因子：0.457

ISSN：1001-7119

年,卷(期)：2024.40(10)