Research on the Relationship Between Influenza and Meteorological Conditions in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou
In this study we collected influenza patient data from the First People's Hospital of Xiaoshan District and ground-based routine observation data from 2016 to 2021,generalized additive model(GAM)is adopted to investigate the associations between influenza and meteorological factors,stepwise-regression model are used to predict influenza risks.Results suggested that:(1)the number of influenza patients increased year by year before COVID-19,the number of influenza patients decreased significantly in 2020,with the highest number in winter and the lowest in summer;(2)The number of influenza patients in young people was the highest among all age groups,and the number of influenza patients in infants was characterized by an inverted U-shaped distribution;(3)The number of influenza patients was negatively correlated with temperature,mean air pressure and daily mean wind speed in February and August,and there was a significant positive correlation with winter relative humidity;(4)Influenza is most likely to strike on the same day and within a 2 d lag when the temperature is below 7℃or the relative humidity is between 55%and 80%,the incidence of influenza has a certain immediacy when the mean air pressure is below 1000 hPa and the wind speed is below 2 m/s or above 7 m/s;(5)The monthly forecast equation of the number of influenza patients was established,the effect of substitution is better than that of trial forecast.In summary,meteorological factors,such as temperature,mean air pressure,daily mean wind speed and relative humidity are tightly associated with the number of influenza patients with certain lag in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou,influenza forecasting models are to some extent indicative.
万方数据
维普
