Based on the data of forest fires in Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2021,the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and causes of historical forest fires in Ningbo are analyzed.Additionally,a forest fire forecast modelin Ningbo is constructed to produce forest fire risk level products,by utilizing intelligent gridforecasting data and integrating risk factors such as surface flammable materials,topography,and human activities.The results indicate that the forest fires in the Ningbo showed a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease during from 2001 to 2021.Human activities are the main causes of forest fires.The winter and spring seasons from January to April and 10∶00-16∶00,are the periods when forest fires occur frequently.Forest fires mainly occurred in hilly areas with an elevation of less than 400 m and a slope of 18°-36°.The closer to the road network and residential areas,the more likely forest fires are to occur.The accuracy of the prediction model is verified by the historical fires in Ningbo from 2021 to 2023,the results show that the model could finely predict the forest fire danger level in Ningbo,and could effectively prevent and control about 71%of the fire points,which played an important guiding role in forest fire prevention in Ningbo.
关键词
森林火灾/时空分布特征/人为活动/智能网格/预报模型/宁波
Key words
forest fire/temporal-spatial distribution characteristics/human activities/intelligent grid/forecast model/Ningbo
维普
万方数据