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会计信息可比性、相对估值与分析师股价预测

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财务分析师普遍使用相对估值法预测股价,而相对估值法的有效性取决于目标公司与对比公司之间是否可比.本文检验会计信息可比性如何影响分析师股价预测的准确度及有用性.以2006-2022年我国非金融业A股上市公司为研究样本,本文实证发现,会计信息可比性能够提升分析师股价预测的准确度,并且当分析师专业能力较低、对比公司股价噪音较小时,会计信息可比性对分析师股价预测准确度的正向影响更大.机制检验表明,会计信息可比性通过提升价格乘数预测准确度进而提高了分析师股价预测的准确度.进一步分析还发现,当会计信息可比性较高时,基于分析师股价预测信息构建的投资策略能够带来更高的回报.本文的实证结果表明,在我国资本市场广泛采用相对估值法的背景下,会计信息可比性对估值有效性具有重要影响.本研究有助于理解与完善中国特色的估值体系,对我国会计准则制定具有指导意义.
Accounting Comparability,Relative Valuation and Analyst Price Forecast
Financial analysts in China's capital market generally use relative valuation method to predict share price,and the effectiveness of the rel-ative valuation method depends on whether the target company is comparable with the comparison companies.We examine the impact of financial statement comparability on the accuracy of analysts'stock price forecast.Taking China's non-financial A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2020 as the sample,we find that the accounting information comparability can improve the accuracy of analysts'share price forecast.The effect is more pronounced when the analysts'ability is low and peer firms have low stock price noise.The mechanism test shows that accounting information comparability can improve the ac-curacy of analysts'stock price forecast by improving the effectiveness of price multiplier prediction.Further analysis finds that when accounting information comparability is high,the investment strategy based on the analysts'stock price forecast can obtain higher returns.These empirical results indicate that ac-counting comparability has a significant impact on the validity of valuation in China's capital market,which makes extensive use of relative valuation meth-ods.This study is helpful to understand and improve the valuation system with Chinese characteristics,and it is instructive for the formulation of account-ing standards in China.

Accounting ComparabilityRelative ValuationAnalyst Price ForecastAnalyst AbilityStock Price Noise

廖冠民、张紫菡、王瀛

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中国人民大学商学院 100872

会计信息可比性 相对估值 分析师股价预测 分析师能力 股价噪音

国家自然科学基金项目

71972180

2024

会计研究
中国会计学会

会计研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:6.346
ISSN:1003-2886
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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