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"互联网"统计智库效应评估理论探究

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[研究目的]在当前数字化和信息化背景下,为进一步推动统计智库的建设与发展情况,开展了"互联网"统计智库效应评估理论研究.旨在解决统计智库效应评估体系不完善、评估指标和评估方法缺乏系统性等问题,从而为统计智库评估提供科学依据,提高统计智库在政策决策和社会经济发展中的作用,更好地服务于国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化.[研究方法]首先对国内外智库研究相关文献进行了系统梳理,并结合互联网统计理论体系的最新进展,提出了适用于"互联网"统计智库效果评估的理论框架.该框架包含评估指标体系的构建、评估方法的提出及评估方案的设计等内容.[研究结论]应从平台界面友好程度、统计调查业务专业程度、统计调查业务广泛程度、统计调查模型先进程度、平台对统计调查领域专家的汇聚能力、平台赋能科学决策能力 6 个维度构建统计智库平台使用效果评估指标体系;在评估方法方面,偏最小二乘估计不要求数据分布,在完成未知参数估计的同时,也能获得潜变量得分,因此适用性较强;还提出了不同层次和类型的智库效应评估方案,例如针对国内外不同层级智库的差异化评估方法,为评估方案的实施提供了具体的操作性建议.研究结论对于提高统计智库平台建设的科学性、合理性,更好地满足政府决策的需求具有重要意义.
Theoretical Research on the Evaluation of the Effect of"Internet-based"Statistical Think Tanks
[Research purpose]Against the backdrop of digitalization and informatization,this paper conducts a theoretical study on the evaluation of the effects of"Internet-based"statistical think tanks to further advance their construction and development.The research aims to address the deficiencies in the existing evaluation systems of statistical think tanks,such as the lack of comprehensiveness in evaluation indicators and methodologies,and to provide a scientific basis for the evaluation of statistical think tanks.This study seeks to enhance the effect of statistical think tanks in policy-making and socio-economic development,thereby better serving the modernization of national governance systems and governance capacity.[Research method]This study systematically reviews relevant literature on think tanks from both domestic and international perspectives,and integrates the latest advancements in Internet-based statistical theory to propose a theoretical framework suitable for evaluating the effectiveness of"Internet-based"statistical think tanks.The proposed framework encompasses the construction of an evaluation indicator system,the formulation of evaluation methodologies,and the design of evaluation schemes.[Research conclusion]The paper proposes that the evaluation indicator system for assessing the effectiveness of statistical think tank platforms should be constructed from six dimensions:platform interface friendliness,professional competence in statistical survey activities,breadth of statistical survey coverage,advancement of statistical models,capacity to attract experts in the field of statistical surveys,and platform's ability to empower scientific decision-making.In terms of evaluation methodology,the study highlights that Partial Least Squares(PLS)estimation does not require specific data distribution assumptions.It not only allows for the estimation of unknown parameters but also yields scores for latent variables,making it highly applicable for the context of think tank evaluation.The paper also proposes differentiated evaluation schemes for different levels and types of think tanks,both domestically and internationally,providing specific operational suggestions for the implementation of these schemes.The findings of this research contribute to enhancing the scientific and rational construction of statistical think tank platforms,enabling them to better meet the governments'decision-making needs.

statistical think tanksplatform constructioneffect evaluationinternet statisticsscientific decision-making

程豪、张艺馨

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中国科协创新战略研究院,北京,100038

国家统计局统计科学研究所,北京,100142

统计智库 平台建设 效果评估 互联网统计学 科学决策

国家自然科学基金委青年科学基金项目国家统计局全国统计科学研究项目(重点项目)中国科协战略发展部项目

720011972023LZ038

2024

科技智囊
北京市科学技术研究院

科技智囊

ISSN:1006-3676
年,卷(期):2024.(9)