In the western mountainous regions of China,where climate change is significant and expressway road layouts are intricate,numerous high-risk sections contribute to a multitude of environmental factors leading to traf-fic accidents.Identifying risks associated with the driving environment on mountainous expressways can effectively prevent accidents.This study employs Bow-Tie analysis to proactively analyze driving environment factors on mountainous expressways,including road environment,traffic environment,and natural environment factors.By em-ploying methods such as minimum cut sets,the structural importance of driving environment factors in traffic acci-dents is initially inferred.Subsequently,employing backward analysis and triangular fuzzy numbers,a fuzzy failure probability analysis is conducted on safety measures after accidents occur.Furthermore,based on the Bayesian Net-work(BN)model,combined with posterior probabilities of traffic accidents,the harm importance and sensitivity of each factor are obtained.This approach facilitates research on the correlation between traffic accidents and driving environment in mountainous expressways,allowing for the proposal of effective preventive measures against acci-dents and their consequences.The results indicate that road environment factors have the highest harm importance and are highly sensitive,making them crucial intermediate events leading to traffic accidents on mountainous expre-ssways.The findings of this study hold significant theoretical value and practical significance in reducing the risk of traffic accidents and enhancing driving environment safety on mountainous expressways.
维普
万方数据