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基于ISM的中老铁路经营管理风险因素分析研究

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中老铁路作为首条与我国铁路网直接联通的国际铁路,在经营管理过程中面临着众多风险挑战,如何保障中老铁路的安全运营已成为亟需解决的重要问题.本文基于实地调研数据,结合相关文献资料组成基础数据,通过扎根理论对其进行编码分析,实现对中老铁路经营管理风险的概念化和范畴化.在此基础上,引入解释结构模型(Interpretive Structural Modeling,ISM)方法分析各风险因子之间的内在联系,构建中老铁路经营管理风险因素分析模型,对各风险进行层级划分,明晰风险形成机理.结果表明,中老铁路经营管理风险因素共14项,其结构关系可划分为5个层级,其中老挝廉政建设工作、地缘政治风险、相关政策有待完善、自然地理条件隐患是影响中老铁路经营管理的最根本因素.针对此类风险因素,本文提出应从加强党风廉政建设、强化两国政治互信、健全相关政策法律体系和完善中老铁路境外安全运营机制等方面实行风险管控措施,以降低中老铁路经营管理风险.
Analysis of Risk Factors in the Management and Operation of the China-Laos Railway Based on ISM
The China-Laos Railway,as the first international railway directly connected to China's railway net-work,faces numerous risks and challenges in its management and operation.Ensuring the safe operation of the China-Laos Railway has become an important issue that needs to be addressed urgently.Based on field research data,combined with relevant literature to form the basic data,this paper uses grounded theory for coding analysis to conceptualize and categorize the risks in the management and operation of the China-Laos Railway.On this basis,the Interpretive Structural Modeling(ISM)method is introduced to analyze the internal relationships be-tween various risk factors,and an analysis model of the risk factors in the management and operation of the China-Laos Railway is constructed,classifying the risks into different levels and clarifying the mechanisms of risk for-mation.The results show that there are a total of 14 risk factors in the management and operation of the China-Laos Railway,which can be divided into 5 levels in terms of structural relationships.Among them,the construc-tion of integrity in Laos,geopolitical risks,the need for policy improvement,and potential natural geographical conditions are the most fundamental factors affecting the management and operation of the China-Laos Railway.In response to such risk factors,this paper proposes that risk control measures should be implemented from the aspects of strengthening the construction of party and government integrity,enhancing political mutual trust be-tween the two countries,improving the relevant policy and legal system,and perfecting the safety operation mech-anism of the China-Laos Railway abroad,in order to reduce the risks in the management and operation of the China-Laos Railway.

China-Laos Railwayoperation and managementrisk analysisgrounded theoryISM

王松江、盘大滨、赵祥

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昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南 昆明 650500

丽江文化旅游学院,云南丽江 674199

中老铁路 经营管理 风险分析 扎根理论 ISM

2024

昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版)
昆明理工大学

昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.516
ISSN:1007-855X
年,卷(期):2024.49(6)