首页|1990-2019年中国归因于饮酒的口腔癌死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析

1990-2019年中国归因于饮酒的口腔癌死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析

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目的 研究1990-2019年中国归因于饮酒的口腔癌死亡趋势变化.方法 利用2019年全球疾病负担中国及全球数据,采用死亡人数、死亡率、标化死亡率进行描述,运用Joinpoint回归模型分析口腔癌死亡趋势,构建年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort,APC)模型,定量评估年龄、时期、出生队列对死亡的独立影响.结果 2019年中国口腔癌死亡人数9 296例,较1990年增长309.70%,高于全球平均水平;标化死亡率全人群、男性呈增长趋势,女性保持不变.死亡率以平均每年4.23%的速度上升,2019年为0.65/10万,较1990年增长242.11%.死亡高发年龄段1990年集中在55~69岁,2019年后推至60~74岁.1990-2019年总体净偏移值为2.38%,死亡率随年龄增长而增高,在85~89岁达峰值8.36/10万,随时期推移呈现先降后升再降趋势,2010-2014时期组相对危险度(relative risk,RR)达最大1.64,出生队列效应RR值呈上升趋势,2000-2004年出生队列RR达最大2.95.结论 中国归因于饮酒的口腔癌死亡负担逐年加重,60岁以上老年人群尤其男性是高危对象,年轻人群饮酒习惯和口腔健康需引起关注.
Trends in oral cancer deaths attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 and an age-period-cohort model analysis
Objective To study the trends of oral cancer deaths attributed to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019.Meth-ods The global burden of disease in China and the world in 2019 was described by the number of deaths,mortality rate and standard-ized mortality rate.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the death trend of oral cancer,and the age-period-cohort(APC)model was established.The independent effects of age,period and birth cohort on death were quantitatively assessed.Results In 2019,the number of deaths from oral cancer in China was 9 296,an increase of 309.70%compared to 1990,higher than the global av-erage.The standardized mortality rate is on the rise for the entire population and males,while females remain unchanged.The mortality rate is increasing at an average annual rate of 4.23%,reaching 0.65/100 000 in 2019,an increase of 242.11%compared to 1990.In 1990,the highest death rate was concentrated in 55-69 years old,and after 2019,it increased to 60-74 years old.The overall net off-set from 1990 to 2019 was 2.38%.The mortality rate increased with age,reaching a peak value of 8.36/100 000 at the age of 85-89.The relative risk(RR)of the 2010-2014 period group was the maximum,1.64.The RR value of the birth cohort effect showed an in-creasing trend,and the RR value of the birth cohort from 2000 to 2004 reached a maximum of 2.95.Conclusion The death burden of oral cancer attributable to alcohol consumption is increasing year by year in China.Elderly people over 60 years old,especially men,are high-risk subjects.Attention should be paid to the drinking habits and oral health of young people.

oral cancerdrinking alcoholdeathage-period-cohort modelChina

张亮亮、古建昌、刘云、王晓岚、柳云霞

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山东第二医科大学口腔医学院,山东潍坊(261053)

潍坊口腔医院牙体牙髓科,山东潍坊(261041)

山东第二医科大学附属医院口腔科,山东潍坊(261053)

口腔癌 饮酒 死亡 年龄-时期-队列模型 中国

山东省自然科学基金面上项目

ZR2020MH188

2024

口腔医学
南京医科大学口腔医学院

口腔医学

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.641
ISSN:1003-9872
年,卷(期):2024.44(3)
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