Trends in oral cancer deaths attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 and an age-period-cohort model analysis
Objective To study the trends of oral cancer deaths attributed to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019.Meth-ods The global burden of disease in China and the world in 2019 was described by the number of deaths,mortality rate and standard-ized mortality rate.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the death trend of oral cancer,and the age-period-cohort(APC)model was established.The independent effects of age,period and birth cohort on death were quantitatively assessed.Results In 2019,the number of deaths from oral cancer in China was 9 296,an increase of 309.70%compared to 1990,higher than the global av-erage.The standardized mortality rate is on the rise for the entire population and males,while females remain unchanged.The mortality rate is increasing at an average annual rate of 4.23%,reaching 0.65/100 000 in 2019,an increase of 242.11%compared to 1990.In 1990,the highest death rate was concentrated in 55-69 years old,and after 2019,it increased to 60-74 years old.The overall net off-set from 1990 to 2019 was 2.38%.The mortality rate increased with age,reaching a peak value of 8.36/100 000 at the age of 85-89.The relative risk(RR)of the 2010-2014 period group was the maximum,1.64.The RR value of the birth cohort effect showed an in-creasing trend,and the RR value of the birth cohort from 2000 to 2004 reached a maximum of 2.95.Conclusion The death burden of oral cancer attributable to alcohol consumption is increasing year by year in China.Elderly people over 60 years old,especially men,are high-risk subjects.Attention should be paid to the drinking habits and oral health of young people.