Improved Convolutional Network Based 4D Trajectory Prediction and Conflict Detection in Terminal Areas
With the continuous expansion of passenger volume and the scale of flight network,the method of air traffic management using flight plans combined with air traffic control has been found to be insufficient to meet the current demands of civil aviation and the volume of air traffic,which directly affects flight regularity and operational safety.To address this issue,the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)has proposed the next-generation concept of air traffic management based on trajectory based operation(TBO),and the Civil Aviation Administration of China(CAAC)has also put forward its construction plan and goals for intelligent aviation.The 4D trajectory is a core component of TBO and an important technical indicator for China's smart aviation construction,which can precisely manage and control the operation of aircraft.Therefore,it has become an urgent core issue to improve the accuracy of 4D trajectory prediction.Focusing on the flight task implementation stage of aircraft,both 4D trajectory prediction and conflict detection were addressed.In terms of trajectory prediction,a convolutional neural networks-bidirectional gated recurrent unit(CNN-BiGRU)model was used for high-precision trajectory prediction.As in conflict detection,a trajectory distance detection function was introduced to check whether there is a conflict between two trajectories generated by the prediction model.The experiments were carried out using the real historical ADS-B trajectory data of a busy terminal area and were compared with the long short-term memory(LSTM)model and the gated recurrent unit(GRU)model on the same set of data.The simulation experiment shows that the CNN-BiGRU model is superior to the comparative models in terms of evaluation metrics,and the detection result shows no conflict within the next 800 s.The method proposed provides an effective tool for the management of air traffic and has a significant value in the application.
4D-trajectory predictionADS-B based track dataflight conflict detectionCNN-BiGRU
万方数据
维普
