Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka is an important node country of China's the Belt and Road Initiative.Extreme precipitation has posed a great threat to the local social economy and severe disaster consequences.Daily precipitation data from 10 local meteorological stations were selected from 2008 to 2020,6 extreme rainfall indicators were calculated based on the RClimDex model,and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events were analyzed by using methods such as empirical orthogonal function analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and rescaled range analysis(R/S analysis),etc.The results show that the extreme precipitation indexes show an upward trend except for the continuous drought index(CDD).The extreme precipitation intensity in the northern coastal plain is higher than that in the southern coastal plain,and the area west of Ratnaple City is the most frequent area of rainfall events in Sri Lanka.The periodicity of extreme precipitation indices have a primary period of 6～7 a with the vast majority of extreme precipitation indices.The R/S analysis indicates that there is a high possibility of local extreme precipitation events continuing in the future.The research results can provide decision-making support for extreme climate prediction,ecological environment protection,disaster prevention and reduction work in Sri Lanka.
extreme precipitationSri Lankatemporal and spatial evolutionempirical orthogonal functions(EOF)wavelet analysisHurst index
万方数据
维普
