Emergency Decision Making in Hydraulic Engineering Based on Highly Conflicting Expert Opinions Fusion
An expert opinion fusion method is proposed to address the problem of the inability of D-S(dempster-shafer)evidence theory to effectively assemble high-conflict expert opinions on the emergency decision-making results of hydraulic engineering.This method introduces improvements to D-S evidence theory by incorporating Lance distance and information entropy.Initially,the im-proved intuitionistic fuzzy entropy was utilized to calculate attribute weights,considering the fuzziness of decision-making information.This process resulted in Mass functions for each expert regarding the proposed solutions.Subsequently,the credibility of the evaluation evidence was determined using Lance distance to measure the conflict and discrepancy between any two experts.Information entropy was employed to describe the randomness in expert decision-making,thus obtaining the uncertainty of the evaluation evidence.These aspects were discounted to obtain the expert's comprehensive weight,ensuring accuracy and reasonableness in the revised weight.Fi-nally,the D-S evidence combination rule was applied to compute the Mass functions of experts'revised opinions on the solutions ulti-mately providing the final decision outcome.The effectiveness of the model was verified through case analysis and method comparison.The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively assemble highly conflicting expert opinions.In comparison with other methods,the fusion results are more accurate,and the considerations regarding the problem are more scientific and effective.This method can serve as a basis for emergency decision-making in hydraulic engineering.
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维普
