Development Law of Debris Flow Disaster and the Evaluation Method of Its Susceptibility:Take Mudslide in Zhaogou Village,Xingtai as an Example
The establishment of a quantitative mudslide susceptibility evaluation method is of great significance for the prevention and control of mudslide disasters.Through the detailed survey and data compilation of 130 mudslide ditches in Hebei Province,the re-gional characteristics of mudslides in Hebei Province were analyzed and summarized.On this basis,evaluation factors were selected,the weights of evaluation factors were determined by introducing random forest classification method,the quantitative relationship be-tween evaluation factors and mudslide susceptibility level was established by using Gaussian forward cloud model,and finally,the ra-tionality of the new method was proved by engineering examples.The study shows that the mudflow hazard sites in western and north-eastern Hebei Province are surrounded by 600 mm and 700 mm annual rainfall contours,respectively,while the mudflow hazard sites in northern areas are mostly located between 400 mm and 500 mm annual rainfall contours.The key factors of debris flow formation in Hebei Province are rainfall intensity,catchment area,loose material storage along the gully,slope of the gully bank,relative height difference of the watershed and specific drop of the gully.The type of debris flow in Hebei Province is mainly small and medium-sized gully storm-water and rock flow.The engineering example analysis shows that the evaluation results of the cloud model evaluation meth-od of debris flow susceptibility based on random forest empowerment are consistent with the actual situation.
万方数据
维普
