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基于博弈论组合赋权-灰关联投影法的山岭隧道突涌水风险评价

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为有效减少隧道突涌水灾害带来的后果损失,提出一种基于序关系分析法(order relationanalysis method,G1)-指标相关性权重确定方法(criteria importance through intercriteria correlation,CRITIC)和灰关联矢量投影原理的隧道突涌水灾害的风险评价方法.在调研相关文献和工程实例的基础上,考虑了地层岩性、水文地质、不良地质和施工设计4个方面,构建出一个可量化的隧道突涌水风险评估指标体系;其次,为更好地避免人为因素带来的偏差,采用G1-CRITIC进行主客观赋权,通过引入博弈论得到主客观赋权的组合权重,实现对各评价指标权重的科学合理分配;最后,结合灰关联矢量投影法对隧道涌水风险等级进行定量评价.将该风险评价方法应用于文笔山1#隧道3个洞段样本,对其进行隧道突涌水风险评估,实例结果表明,隧道样本3突涌水风险等级为Ⅳ级,另两个隧道洞段样本为Ⅱ级涌水风险,得出的风险评价等级与实际开挖情况吻合,此模型可对多因素影响下的工程地质灾害进行准确评价,与其他模型结果对比更加验证了该评价模型的可行性与准确性.
Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Mountain Tunnel Based on Game Theory Combination Weighting-Grey Relation Projection Method
To effectively reduce the consequences and losses caused by tunnel water inrush disasters,a risk assessment method for tunnel water inrush disasters was proposed based on order relation analysis method(G1),criteria importance through intercriteria cor-relation(CRITIC),and the principle of grey relation vector projection.Building upon a survey of relevant literature and engineering examples,four aspects including strata lithology,hydrogeology,adverse geology,and construction design were considered to establish a quantifiable index system for assessing tunnel water inrush risk.Additionally,to better avoid biases introduced by human factors,the G1-CRITIC method was employed for subjective-objective weighting.By introducing game theory,a combined weight of subjective and objective weighting was obtained to scientifically and reasonably allocate weights to each evaluation index.Finally,quantitative evalua-tion of tunnel water inrush risk levels was conducted through grey relation vector projection.This risk assessment method was applied to three sections of sample tunnels in Wenbi Mountain 1# Tunnel,assessing tunnels water inrush risks.The results show that the risk lev-el of tunnel sample 3 is Grade Ⅳ,while the other two tunnel sections are Grade Ⅱ water inrush risks.The obtained risk assessment levels are consistent with the actual excavation conditions,demonstrating the model's ability to accurately evaluate engineering geolog-ical disasters under multiple influencing factors.Comparison with other model results further validates the feasibility and accuracy of this evaluation model.

mountain tunnelwater inrushgrey relational projectiongame theory combination weightingrisk assessment

吴波、李雅婷、徐世祥、韦煜

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东华理工大学土木与建筑工程学院,南昌 330013

广西大学土木建筑工程学院,南宁 530004

山岭隧道 突涌水 灰关联投影 博弈论组合赋权 风险评价

国家自然科学基金江西省"双千计划"创新领军人才项目江西省自然科学基金

52278397jxsq202010100120212ACB204001

2024

科学技术与工程
中国技术经济学会

科学技术与工程

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.338
ISSN:1671-1815
年,卷(期):2024.24(25)