Coupling Analysis of Construction Accident Risk in N-K Model Based on Fault Tree
In order to study the accident risk of horizontal directional drilling construction,considering the shortcomings of fault tree qualitative analysis and N-K model(N is the number of components in the system,K is the number of interactions between each component and other components)quantitative analysis method,a comprehensive model of N-K construction accident risk analysis based on fault tree was constructed from four risk factors:human,equipment,environment and management.By establishing the mapping relationship between the underlying events of fault tree construction and the coupling risk factors of N-K model,the single factor,double factor and multi-factor coupling risk probabilities were calculated respectively,and the risk coupling value was solved.The results show that the risk probability of horizontal directional drilling construction accidents increases with the increase of risk coupling factors.When the three factors are coupled,the maximum value of equipment-environment-management coupling is 0.260 8,followed by man-equipment-management is 0.203 4.When the two factors are coupled,the maximum value of the environment-management coupling effect is 0.155 4.There are 50 possible ways to cause accidents in horizontal directional drilling construction accidents.The overall accident risk can be prevented in stages according to the preparation stage,the guide hole drilling stage,the reaming stage,the pipeline pullback stage and the planning management stage.On the one hand,the research results can provide a new comprehensive model for risk research,on the other hand,it can also provide an important reference for the safe construction of horizontal directional drilling.
万方数据
维普
