中国公路运输行业碳排放占比高,车辆排放是公路运输中碳排放的主要贡献,在国家碳达峰碳中和的战略背景下,减小车辆二氧化碳排放量尤为重要.为预测轻型车在公路行驶过程的碳排放,及研究不同速度区间下二氧化碳排放量与影响因子之间关系,利用便携式排放测试系统(portable emission measurement system,PEMS)采集试验车车在不同等级公路行驶过程中的二氧化碳排放量、运行工况以及环境信息,根据机动车比功率(vehicle specific power,VSP)及运行速度进行聚类分析,以速度、加速度、坡度和空气密度为自变量,二氧化碳排放量为因变量进行相关性分析、逐步回归分析,得到试验车二氧化碳排放量与影响因子之间的最优回归方程,分析了影响权重;以此分别建立了综合速度区间和不同速度区间建立了试验车二氧化碳排放量的预测模型.结果表明:基于公路的速度区间上建立的二氧化碳模型比综合速度区间建立的模型精准度更高;在速度区间[20,40)内,坡度是对二氧化碳排放量影响最显著的因子,而在其他速度区间内,加速度对二氧化碳排放量的影响最大;在速度区间[2.0,20)内,速度是第二大的影响因子,而在速度区间[20,40)内,加速度成为第二影响因子;在不同速度区间内,速度和空气密度带来的影响相对较小.
Prediction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from On-road Light Vehicles Based on Speed Interval
China's road transportation industry accounts for a high proportion of carbon emissions,to a large extent,carbon emis-sions in road transportation are primarily caused by vehicle emissions.Against the background of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategies,it is particularly important for carbon dioxide emissions from road vehicles to be reduced.In order to predict the carbon emissions of light-duty vehicles during highway driving,the portable emission testing system(PEMS)was utilized to collect the carbon dioxide emissions,operating t conditions and environmental information of the test vehicle during driving on different grades of highway,and the optimal regression equations between vehicle carbon dioxide emissions and influencing factors were obtained,using speed,acceleration,gradient and air density as independent variables,and carbon dioxide emissions as dependent variables for corre-lation analysis and stepwise regression analysis.According to cluster analysis based on vehicle specific power(VSP)and operating speed,correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis were conducted with speed,acceleration,slope,and air density as inde-pendent variables and carbon dioxide emissions as the dependent variable.The optimal regression equation between carbon dioxide emissions of test vehicles and influencing factors was obtained,and the influence weights were analyzed.The results show these as fol-lows.The CO2 model based on speed intervals of different levels of highways is more accurate than the model based on comprehensive speed intervals.Within the speed interval[20,40),CO2 emissions are most significantly affected by the gradient,nevertheless,in other speed intervals,CO2 emissions are most significantly affected by acceleration.Within the speed interval[2.0,20),speed is identified as the second most influential factor,and acceleration is assumed as the second significant factor in the speed interval[20,40).However,within different speed intervals,carbon dioxide emissions are minimally influenced by speed and air density.
万方数据
维普
