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甘肃陇东地区潜在蒸散发时空变化的影响因素

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研究陇东地区潜在蒸散发ET0时空变化及其对气候变化的响应,有利于探明气候变化对水文过程的影响。基于陇东地区1984-2019年气象资料,采用统计学及空间插值方法揭示ET0时空变化特征,结合定性与定量分析方法,探讨ET0与气象因素的关系以及ET0对各气象要素变化的敏感性及贡献。结果表明:陇东地区ET0呈显著上升趋势,线性变化率3。03 mm/a,在1993年发生突变。主成分分析发现,温度、湿度、辐射、动力等气象因素均对ET0产生影响,温度因素影响最大,动力因素影响最小。通径分析结果显示:日最高气温Tmax、日照时数n是影响ET0变化最主要因素,其次是相对湿度RH、平均风速u,降雨量P对ET0变化影响最小。ET0对气象要素变化敏感性排序为RH、Tmax、n、u,RH起反向作用,RH减少对ET0增大影响最大,Tmax、n、u起正向作用,Tmax、n、u多年增加促使ET0增加。ET0增大的主要原因是Tmax升高,其次是RH、u,对ET0增加贡献最小为n,4种气象因素总贡献24。65%。
Influencing Factors of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Potential Evapotranspiration in Longdong,Gansu Province
Studying the temporal and spatial variations of potential evapotranspiration ET0 and its response to climate change in Longdong region is helpful to understand the effects of climate change on hydrological processes.Based on the meteorological data from 1984 to 2019 in Longdong region,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of ET0 were revealed by statistical and spatial interpolation methods.The relationship between ET0 and meteorological factors,as well as the sensitivity and contribution of ET0 to the changes of meteorological factors were discussed by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.The results show that ET0 in Longdong region presents a significant upward trend,with a linear change rate of 3.03 mm/a,and a sudden change occurred in 1993.Principal component analysis shows that meteorological factors such as temperature,humidity,radiation and power all have an impact on ET0,with temperature having the greatest impact and power having the least impact.Path analysis results show that daily maximum temperature Tmax and sunshine duration n are the most important factors affecting the change of ET0,followed by relative humidity RH and average wind speed u,and rainfall P has the least influence on the change of ET0.The sensitivity of ET0 to the change of meteorological factors is ranked as RH,Tmax,n,u.RH has a reverse effect,and the decrease of RH has the greatest effect on the increase of ET0.Tmax,n,u have a positive effect,and the increase of Tmax,n,u over the years promotes the increase of ET0.The main reason for the increase of ET0 is the increase of Tmax,followed by RH and u,and n contributes the least to the increase of ET0.The total contribution of the four meteorological factors is 24.65%.

potential evapotranspirationdriving factorscluster analysiscontributionspatiotemporal variationLongdong region

马亚丽、白祖晖、王兴繁

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甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,兰州 730070

甘肃省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,兰州 730030

潜在蒸散发 驱动因素 聚类分析 贡献 时空变化 陇东地区

2024

科学技术与工程
中国技术经济学会

科学技术与工程

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.338
ISSN:1671-1815
年,卷(期):2024.24(36)