科学技术与工程2025,Vol.25Issue(22) :9586-9594.DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404845

基于突变理论的模糊推理系统风险评价模型

The Risk Assessment Model Based on Catastrophe Theory and Fuzzy Inference System

杨昌其 姜美岑 林灵
科学技术与工程2025,Vol.25Issue(22) :9586-9594.DOI:10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404845

基于突变理论的模糊推理系统风险评价模型

The Risk Assessment Model Based on Catastrophe Theory and Fuzzy Inference System

杨昌其 1姜美岑 1林灵1
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,广汉 618307
  • 折叠

摘要

在ASIS系统上采集2017-2023年共计86 917起不正常事件数据作为研究对象,并在此基础上构建不正常事件指标体系.为了确保航空运行安全,构建准确、可靠的风险评价模型来对不正常事件进行深入分析,从而实现有效的风险管理.首先,在模糊推理系统中引入突变理论的原理,能够使其更好地应对复杂问题,提高评价的准确性.然后,构建突变理论的模糊推理系统风险评价模型对航空运行不正常事件进行风险评价.其次,选用56个有详细背景信息记录的不正常事件进行实例分析,并与云模型进行对比分析,从而验证模型的可行性和精确性.最后,对相关指标进行模糊控制,为航空运行安全管理工作提供指导.

Abstract

In the ASIST system,data on 86 917 abnormal events from 2017 to 2023 are collected as research objects,and an indicator system for abnormal events was established.To ensure the safety of aviation operations,accurate and reliable risk assessment models were developed to analyze abnormal events in depth,thereby achieving effective risk management.Firstly,the principle of catastrophe theory was introduced into the fuzzy inference system,which enables it to better handle complex issues and enhance the accuracy of evaluations.Then,a risk assessment model based on catastrophe theory and fuzzy inference system was developed to assess the risks of abnormal aviation events.Additionally,56 cases with detailed background information records were selected for instance analysis,and compared with the cloud model,to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the model.Finally,relevant indicators were controlled using fuzzy methods,providing guidance for the safety management work of aviation operations.

关键词

风险评价/不正常事件/突变理论/模糊推理系统/风险指标

Key words

risk assessment/abnormal events/catastrophe theory/fuzzy inference system/risk indicators

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出版年

2025
科学技术与工程
中国技术经济学会

科学技术与工程

影响因子:0.338
ISSN:1671-1815
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