摘要
亚洲水塔是亚洲地区重要的水资源供给单元,为其周边约8亿人的水资源需求提供保障.亚洲水塔水资源的稳定性与可持续性对周边地区社会经济稳定与可持续发展具有重要意义.受气候变化和人类活动的影响,在过去几十年中,亚洲水塔水资源存量及其可持续性引起了学界高度关注.亚洲水塔冰川消融、冻土退化、湖泊面积扩张、陆地水储量下降等进一步打破了亚洲水塔水资源平衡状态.本文围绕亚洲水塔水循环过程及其效应、水资源变化及其未来预测这一主线,梳理了亚洲水塔气候状态、冰川、径流、湖泊和陆地水储量等水资源组分的变化和影响因素系列研究成果,系统总结了气候变化下亚洲水塔水资源研究进展.在此基础上,从气候变化影响下亚洲水塔水资源存量及变化、亚洲水塔的人类福祉服务与可持续发展和跨域协同系统治理等方面讨论了亚洲水塔水资源失衡面临的挑战和未来的研究展望,以期推动亚洲水塔周边国家未来水资源科学管理与经济社会可持续发展.
Abstract
The Asia's water tower(AWT),regarded as the third pole of the Earth,serves as the critical water supply unit for the Asian region,with numerous glaciers and lakes,giving birth to many Asian rivers,and providing water security about 800 million people.The sustainability of water resources in AWT is of great significance to the social and economic stability and sustainable development of the surrounding regions,which is being threatened by climate change.With the impact of global warming and anthropogenic activities,the hydrologic cycle has intensified,and the water vapor budget and water resources supply have undergone significant changes.This has led to an imbalance in regional water resource supply,severely threatening regional food security and socio-political stability.Therefore,the water resources stock and sustainability of AWT are facing severe challenges.It is of great importance to understand the hydrological cycle characteristics of the AWT and its modulating effect on the surrounding climate,comprehensively understand the water resources change and its impact,and cope with the imbalance and unequal distribution of water resources that the AWT will face.Introducing water vapor transport and water circulation of AWT based on the published work,we divided the water vapor circulation process of the AWT into two parts:External water vapor transport and internal water vapor circulation,and analyzed the mechanisms and water vapor source regions for external water vapor transport to AWT through the mid-latitude westerlies,Indian monsoon,and Asian monsoon.Then,we introduced the main components and mechanisms of interaction in the internal circulation in AWT.We also evaluated the effects of water resources on AWT and surrounding areas,and deciphered how the AWT affected the surrounding areas by changing water supply,water vapor transport,etc.,and how the changes may lead to extreme hydrometeorological events.Due to the impact of global warming,climate change has posed a serious threat to the security of water resources in AWT.We identified the changing rules of factors related to water resources in AWT.The main changes of these factors are as follows:Increased precipitation,accelerated glacier melting,expansion of lake areas,thawing and degradation of permafrost,increased runoff,and decreased terrestrial water storage.These changes have disrupted the balance of water resources in the AWT,significantly change the regional water cycle in the AWT,and it is expected that the imbalance of water resources in the AWT will accelerate in the future.In general,focusing on the main line of the water cycle process and its effects,water resources change and their future prediction,we analyzed the results on the changes and influencing factors of water resources components,such as climate status,glaciers,runoff,lakes and terrestrial water storage in AWT,and systematically summarized the progress of water resources in AWT under climate change.Finally,we discussed the challenges of water resource imbalance in AWT,and outlined future research directions.We proposed that we should focus on the effect on AWT and its surrounding areas under climate change,enrich observational data and improve the accuracy of model simulations,and cope with future risk and challenges through cross-domain collaborative system governance.We hope that this article can serve as reference for promoting the future management of water resources and sustainable socio-economic development of the countries around AWT,fully utilizing the human welfare services provided thereby.
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维普
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