厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño and Southern Oscillation,ENSO)对全球气候都具有重要的影响,如印度洋季风、秘鲁沿岸的渔业生产以及北美的气候等.过去的研究在ENSO的观测、理论、预报和数值模拟等方面都取得了长足的进展,但依然有很多问题尚待解决.本文简要地回顾了过去在ENSO的相关理论、预报、非对称性以及年代际变化、古气候下的变化以及数值模拟方面的研究:首先回顾了ENSO盛行的几组理论,具体包括Bjerknes正反馈机制、延迟振子理论、充放电振子理论、平流反射振子理论以及西太平洋振子理论.其次,系统地总结了厄尔尼诺常用的预报方法以及预报因子(如暖水体积、西太平洋风场、印度洋-太平洋风场的积分及赤道流场等),并讨论了目前预报仍然存在的局限性;非对称性和年代际变化是ENSO重要的特征,本文详细地阐述了这方面的相关研究进展及存在的问题.再次,介绍了关于ENSO的古气候研究目前所取得的成果以及主要结论,并对数值模拟方面仍然存在的问题及ENSO对其他海盆的影响进行了讨论;最后,对上述相关方面存在的不足以及亟待解决的问题进行了探讨和总结.
Progresses of El Ni?o and Southern Oscillation research
El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a quasi-periodic phenomenon with significant global influence,primarily characterized by variations in sea surface temperature across the tropical Pacific and associated oscillations in surface air pressure.Over the past decades,ENSO has been a focal topic of research owing to its profound influence on global climate patterns,impacting phenomena such as the Indian monsoon,Peruvian coastal fisheries,and North American climate.In recent years,with the emergence and application of new tools such as advanced climate models and machine learning in ENSO research,a comprehensive review of past studies could serve to outline the accomplishments made and shed light on the outstanding questions that persist.By integrating these powerful tools,researchers can pursue unresolved questions and further advance our understanding of ENSO dynamics.In this paper,we reviewed past studies on ENSO from both scientific and practical perspectives.As science and practice are often interconnected and inseparable,we structured our paper in a logical sequence,covering classic ENSO theories,forecasting methods,asymmetry and decadal variations,changes in ancient climates,simulated ENSO in climate models,and the impacts of ENSO in other oceans.In the realm of science,we began by discussing some classic theories.We summarized the positive feedback mechanism proposed by Bjerknes for El Nino and highlighted its shortcoming of lacking negative feedback.In addition,we covered various negative feedback mechanisms proposed by others,such as the delayed oscillator,recharge-discharge oscillator,advective-reflective oscillator,and the West Pacific oscillator theories.Furthermore,given that asymmetry and decadal variations are important features of ENSO,we reviewed several relevant studies that proposed different mechanisms,including long Rossby wave dynamics,nonlinear dynamic heating and nonlinear temperature advection.Additionally,we reviewed the studies on ENSO in scenarios of ancient and future climates,revealing how ENSO's properties,such as strength and phase-locking,differ from those of the present.Finally,we summarized the ENSO's influence beyond the Pacific,encompassing the Indian Ocean Dipole and Indian Ocean Basin Mode,as well as impacts on the North Tropical Atlantic Mode in the Atlantic Ocean.In practical applications,we first introduced different forecasting methods,including statistical and dynamic models,each with its own advantages and disadvantages.We briefly overviewed a study using a dynamic model and then emphasized the statistical models.We outlined commonly used factors for predicting El Nino,including warm water volume,the West Pacific wind field,the space-time integration of Indo-Pacific winds,and equatorial flow fields,along with discussions on the current limitations in forecasting.Recent advancements in ENSO forecasting employing deep learning are also discussed for their potential to improve prediction lead time and accuracy.In addition,some researchers have explored ENSO by analyzing outputs from climate models.In this context,we summarized some studies utilizing models from various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP).While some studies identified inaccuracies in simulated seawater temperature and salinity during ENSO events in climate models,others have indicated a gradual improvement in the simulation of ENSO within newer phases of CMIP.Despite significant progress in the aforementioned areas of ENSO,various questions remain unanswered.In the last section,we outlined shortcomings and challenges that require further exploration in both the scientific and practical realms of ENSO research.
El Niño and Southern Oscillationdynamicspredictionpaleoclimatesalinityinter-basin interaction
张晓琳、马永星
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大连海事大学航海学院,大连 116085
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,Kyushu University,Fukuoka 819-0395,Japan
Fisheries and Oceans Canada,Bedford Institute of Oceanography,Dartmouth B2Y 4A2,Canada
NETL
NSTL
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