The comment and prospect of research on coupling models of human-Earth system dynamics
The research of the human-Earth system dynamic coupling model has become a frontier scientific issue in the field of global change and Earth system science.For a long time,the Earth system model and the socio-economic model have independently developed and achieved their own achievements.However,in the face of the complex human-Earth system relationship,the shortcomings of the two types of models are becoming increasingly prominent.Therefore,it is necessary to combine the two models.This paper reviews and summarizes the current research status of"human-Earth system coupling model",analyzes the existing problems,puts forward the ideas to solve the problems,and looks forward to the development direction and prospect.This paper holds that the human-Earth system is a complex system of interaction and mutual influence between the natural Earth environment and human social economy.The definition of the human-Earth system model and the research goal of the model are not completely clear.The most basic understanding is that the human-Earth system model refers to the bidirectional coupling model between the human system model and the Earth system model.By constructing a dynamic model of the human-Earth system,we can reveal the dynamic evolution of the elements of the human-Earth system,analyze its process coupling mechanism,and clarify its optimal regulation approach.Only in this way can we scientifically deal with the global change,with climate warming as the main feature,caused by human activities,and provide a solid theoretical foundation for the sustainable development of mankind.Since the beginning of the 21st century,Chinese scientists have carried out exploration and research on the construction of human-Earth system dynamic coupling model,and achieved unique and innovative results.At present,the coupling model of human-Earth system dynamics involves the simulation coupling of human socio-economic system model and Earth system model.This model has made important progress in the simulation and prediction of global warming,future CO2 emission trend,land use change,economic feedback,and other related aspects.However,there are still some imperfections,such as unclear characterization of the complexity of inter-system feedback processes,spatio-temporal scale mismatchs,and poor simulation ability of extreme events.This paper holds that in order to overcome these above problems,future research should focus on the following aspects:(1)The diversification of information transmitted by the feedback process of the human-Earth system model;(2)the medium complex scale of the Earth system model;(3)the narrow equalization and extreme event responsiveness of the human-Earth system model;(4)the extension of the application of the human-Earth system model;and(5)constructing ensemble simulations of human-Earth system model and unifying the drive data set.
climate changehuman-Earth systemfeedback process complexitycoupling modeladaptation
万方数据
维普
