摘要
过去千年中世纪暖期和小冰期是欧亚大陆社会演替重要的气候背景,厘清气候变化与社会演替的关系是推动当今变暖背景下人类社会可持续发展的有效途径.通过回顾2000～2023年223篇相关主题文献,系统梳理中世纪暖期和小冰期欧亚大陆受气候变化影响的社会案例82个,从科技文化、经济、政治和社会4个层面归纳社会弹性的表现形式,揭示气候变化和社会弹性对社会演替的贡献.主要结论如下:气候在快速变化期对欧亚大陆社会演替的影响最大,而社会弹性的大小决定了其发展轨迹.中世纪暖期亚洲表现出更强的社会弹性,主要体现在政治和小农经济层面;小冰期欧洲表现出更强的社会弹性,主要体现在科技文化和商业经济层面.未来需加强多学科交叉研究,量化季节尺度、年际尺度和年代际尺度气候转变对社会发展的影响程度,深化对气候变化背景下区域差异和区际联系的认识,提高区域社会弹性,共同抵御气候危机.
Abstract
Over the last millennium,climate change and social resilience dynamics have intricately shaped the rise and fall of human civilizations across various spatial and temporal scales,marking a crucial area of study in geography,history,and political economy.This intricate relationship,which is essential for promoting sustainable development against contemporary global warming,has been the subject of extensive interdisciplinary research.A comprehensive review was undertaken of 223 thematic publications from 2000 to 2023 analyzing 82 societal cases across Eurasia during the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age affected by climate change.This analysis spans technological,cultural,economic,political,and societal dimensions,summarizing the forms of social resilience and revealing the contributions of climate change and social resilience to societal evolution.During the Medieval Warm Period,the impact of climate change was more beneficial than detrimental,facilitating development and integration across Eurasia to a certain extent.Temporally,the positive impacts of climate change on human societies were primarily concentrated during periods of rapid warming or stable climatic change,whereas the negative impacts were predominant during rapid cooling phases.Spatially,climate change during the Medieval Warm Period fostered rapid development in agrarian East Asian societies and northern nomadic tribes,whereas Western societies became relatively underdeveloped during this era.The Little Ice Age induced social crises in various Eurasian regions,mostly coinciding with periods of rapid climate change.In response to these climatic shifts the development trajectory of human societies determined their fate.Societies with lower resilience declined or collapsed during these transitions,while those with greater resilience effectively navigated the crises,leading to periods of political,economic,and cultural prosperity.The Little Ice Age saw Europe gradually transitioning from a feudal to a modern society after the Age of Exploration.In contrast,the Chinese dynasties declined owing to their continuity and stability against the backdrop of cooling climates.However,even societies with strong resilience could face collapse under subsequent significant and rapid climate shifts.Once the climate stabilized,political and economic factors became the primary determinants of societal development.Throughout the past millennium,the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age witnessed numerous unpredictable climate disasters during alternating cold and warm periods.However human civilization has persevered primarily owing to the resilience and adaptive capacities of ecological and social systems.Historically,human societies have responded to climatic shocks through advancements in technology,culture,economics,politics,and social structures,in addition,these aspects are interlinked and collectively contribute to sustainable development.During the Medieval Warm Period,Asia demonstrated stronger social resilience,particularly in terms of political governance and agrarian economies.This resilience could be attributed to the warmer climatic conditions that enhanced productivity in East Asian societies and northern nomadic communities.This allowed for efficient resource utilization under centralized dynastic rule,thereby strengthening social,political,and economic foundations.Conversely,the Little Ice Age saw Europe exhibit greater social resilience,notably in technological,cultural,and commercial economic aspects,possibly related to its bottom-up social systems.Although the pace of climate change over the past millennium has been unprecedented,climate change impacts on societal transitions and human responses can still be traced through social history.Learning from historical responses to climatic shocks can provide practical solutions for current sustainable development challenges.Future efforts should focus on strengthening interdisciplinary research to quantify climate change impacts on societal development at seasonal,interannual,and decadal scales.A deeper understanding of regional differences and inter-regional connections within the climate change framework is crucial.Developing sustainable development strategies tailored to regional characteristics will promote the construction of a shared human destiny and enable collective resilience against climate crises.
维普
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