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基于科技安全工程学的未来产业创新发展研究

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未来产业是由重大科技创新成果产业化形成的,对未来经济社会发展乃至文明跃迁起到全局性、关键性、支撑性和引领性作用的超前布局产业,其培育的关键在于原始性、突破性、颠覆性科技创新的有效支撑,面临发展前景不明、路径不明、风险不明等挑战,有赖于更加科学精准的预见方法和决策支持.已有研究更多从正向视角探讨未来产业的创新机制,缺乏分类讨论以及综合负向视角的全面解析,忽视了未来产业创新的二元性.对此,立足中国情境,基于科技安全工程学的二元分析框架,对未来产业的理论体系、创新机制、培育路径、治理模式等进行系统性重塑与构建:(1)从多元意义等视角出发完善中国式未来产业的概念和内涵,阐释其人民性、引领性、整合性、底线性等核心属性;(2)解析未来产业创新发展与治理所面临的高不确定性、高融合性、高复杂性、高风险性等新特征、新问题、新需求;(3)提出"主观洞见+定量监测"驱动的混合智能科技决策新模式,并对相应的科技决策新工具、新方法展开框架性探索,形成相应的方法论基础;(4)以科技决策新模式为起点,探究未来产业可持续创新发展的底层逻辑与实践框架,通过目标手段分析,对未来产业科技管理、服务、治理一体化的综合平台架构展开模块化设计.
Research on the Future Industry Innovation and Development Based on Science and Technology Security Engineering
Future industry is a leading layout industry formed by the industrialization of momentous scientific and tech-nological innovation achievements,which plays an overall,key,supporting and leading role in the future economic,social development and civilization transition.The key of future industry cultivation lies in the effective support of original,break-through and disruptive scientific and technological innovation,faced with challenges such as unclear development prospects,paths,and risks,relying on more scientific and accurate foresight methods and decision support.Besides,the existing research mainly proposes the innovation mechanism of the future industry from a positive perspective,lacking classification and comprehensive analysis from a negative perspective,and ignoring the duality of future industrial innovation.In this regard,based on the Chinese context and the dualistic analysis framework of science and technology security engineering,the research systematically reshapes and constructs the theoretical system,innovation mechanism,cultivation path,governance model,etc.of the future industry.In response to the above goals,the research first improves the concept and connotation of the future industry from the perspective of multiple meanings,and explains its core characteristics such as people-oriented,leading,holistic and bottom-line persisted,etc.Secondly,the research analyzes the new trends,new problems and new demands faced by future industry innovation,such as high uncertainty,high integration,high complexity and high risk.On the basis of analyzing the characteristics and requirements,a new mode of scientific and technological decision-making driven by"scene+algorithm"is proposed,and an original exploration on new tools and methods of scientific and technological decision-making based on hybrid intelligence is carry out,forming corresponding methodological basis.Finally,based on the new model of scientific and technological decision-making,explores the underlying logic and practical framework of sustainable innovation cultiva-tion of future industries,and through the analysis of objectives and means,develops modular design for the framework of future industry scientific and technological decision-making support platform and the market-oriented sustainable innovation and cultivation mechanism of future industries,so as to provide practice and policy reference for creating a virtuous circle of"scientific foresight-strict assessment-scientific and technological research and development-investment and incubation-industrial landing-return on income-iterative foresight".The results show that compared with traditional industry and strategic emerging industry,the theoretical connotation,main goals,strategic values,sources of power,innovation paradigms,core capabilities,fundamental points,and develop-ment models of future industry have all surpassed.The new characteristics have led to the demand for multi-dimensional integration of data elements,dynamic and precise technology decision-making,full lifecycle technology management and service,as well as full coverage and all-weather micro governance,which call for meaningful holistic innovation paradigm driven by omniscient decision-making based on human-machine hybrid intelligence,and construction of the methodology of science and technology security engineering as well as the dual governance system based on bottom line thinking from a coordination perspective of development autonomy and regulatory autonomy.The research suggests that at the historic moment when the uniqueness of human intelligence is likely to be disrupted,it is necessary to clearly propose a bottom line for future industry governance where technology can be implemented,and build a new model of innovative development and governance that is compatible with it,leading to a virtuous cycle of future industry cultivation which includes"scientific foresight-cautious decision-making-technology research and development-investment incubation-industry landing-return on investment-iterative foresight".Subsequent research can take science and technology security engineering as the starting point,gradually building a more comprehensive theoretical system of innovation security engineering,including industrial security engineering and civilization security engineering,as well as four element governance paradigm based on bottom line thinking,in order to provide overall and systematic guidance for the future industry's credible and sustainable development.

meaningful innovationholistic innovationfuture industryscience and technology securitysystems engineering

朱子钦、陈劲、金鹿、张可人

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清华大学 经济管理学院,北京 100084

清华大学 技术创新研究中心,北京 100084

天津市科学技术发展战略研究院,天津 300011

有意义的创新 整合式创新 未来产业 科技安全 系统工程

国家重点研发计划重点专项国家自然科学基金青年科学基金

2022YFF090320072304163

2024

科学学与科学技术管理
中国科学学与科技政策研究会 天津市科学学研究所

科学学与科学技术管理

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.68
ISSN:1002-0241
年,卷(期):2024.45(6)
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