Investigating the Impact Mechanism of Technology Blockade Initiated by the U.S.on the Innovation Incentive of Chinese Government:An Empirical Study based on the Provincial Level Data
As an extreme measure for technological secrecy,technology blockades are often used by developed coun-tries to suppress emerging nations'advancement in technology.In recent years,western developed countries led by the United States have sought to restrict China's technological development in strategic emerging industries such as high-end chips,artificial intelligence,and new materials,launching multiple rounds of technology blockades against China.With in-creasingly severe anti-globalization and trade protection policies being implemented,overseas technology blockades have significantly impacted China's technology market,leading to insufficient innovation drive and weak endogenous growth.Many sectors are constrained by technological bottlenecks,limiting resources and opportunities.Additionally,technology blockades signal key technological areas;U.S.restrictions on specific fields like chips and aerospace generate"signal effects,"providing directional guidance for the government in selecting priority innovation fields,thereby influencing China's inno-vation incentive policies.To deeply analyze this dynamic response process and regulatory mechanisms,revealing the complex dynamics and in-herent logic,this paper constructs a Pressure-State-Response(PSR)dynamic model.It reflects the U.S.technology blockade in the"pressure level"of the dynamic model structure,with the impacts of this pressure represented in the"state level."Dis-turbances at both levels transmit to government departments through"shock effects"and"signal effects,"ultimately map-ping to increased government innovation incentive intensity at the"response level."Based on this dynamic model,the paper analyzes the impact mechanisms of U.S.technology blockades on China's government innovation incentive policies in four fields:information technology,new energy,new materials,and high-end equipment manufacturing.Employing a dynamic double difference method,an empirical study was conducted using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020.The results indicate a significant positive impact of U.S.technology blockades on China's government innovation in-centive intensity,with effects transmitted through the aforementioned channels stimulating the government to increase tech-nological investment and accelerate domestic technology licensing efforts to break through the blockade.This impact mecha-nism is particularly significant in the information technology sector,where the U.S.blockade is most stringent,while its in-fluence is relatively weaker in new energy,new materials,and high-end equipment manufacturing.The regression analysis passed parallel trend tests and placebo tests,confirming the accuracy and reliability of the empirical research results.By clarifying the transmission mechanisms of the effects of U.S.technology blockades,this study provides a basis for China to accurately assess the potential subsequent impacts of such blockades and offers possibilities for differentiated inno-vation incentives in different technological fields.Based on these findings,the paper proposes policy recommendations conducive to the long-term development of China's high-tech industries:guiding local governments to allocate local fiscal technology funds more scientifically and reasonably based on local industrial structure characteristics and comparative advantages,preventing a recurrence of the rapid rise and fall of the"chip-making"movement seen in 2019;closely moni-toring key technological signals transmitted behind technology blockades and establishing precise policy response mecha-nisms;and encouraging local governments to engage in more forward-looking technology layouts based on their resource endowments,with the aim of reducing dependence on Western technology in the future.
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万方数据
