Dynamic Effects of Dual-Credit Policy on Innovation Performance of Automobile Industry in the Transformation Era:Evidence from Discontinuity Regression Analysis
As an important pillar of the national economy,the green transformation of the automobile industry is the key to drive the systemic change of China's economy and society in the"dual-carbon"era.The transformation is of great significance in solving the energy and environmental problems and realizing the dual objectives of"carbon peaking"and"carbon neutrality".The dual-credit policy is an important institutional guarantee for the transformation of the automobile industry.The policy intends to build a long-term synergistic mechanism to promote the performance of the energy-saving techniques of traditional automobiles and the development of new energy vehicles through market mechanism.The dual-credit policy emphasizes the role of the market mechanism,by adopting the credit trading mechanism to generate mar-ket value for new energy vehicle credits.The policy aims to achieve synergistic management of traditional and new energy vehicles by transferring a portion of the development cost for new energy vehicles to traditional vehicle enterprises that fail to meet the standards.Due to the high policy dependence of China's auto market,the effectiveness of the dual-credit policy,which is intended to play the role of market mechanism,remains to be test.However,existing studies fail to reach a consen-sus over the policy effects on the effectiveness of the credit trading mechanism and the credit assessment rules due to the da-ta and method limitations.There is a lack of studies focusing on the causal explanation of policy effects from the perspec-tive of action mechanisms.Under the function of credit trading mechanism and credit assessment rules,the policy incen-tives have a breakpoint at the zero point of the credit value,which provides an opportunity for regression discontinuity de-signs.Based on a quasi-natural experiment formed by the dual-credit policy,the study conducts a regression discontinuity analysis drawing data from Chinese automobile manufacturers during the period of 2018-2021.From the dual performance perspectives of energy saving of traditional automobiles and the innovation performance of new energy vehicle,this research measures the dynamic impact of the dual-credit policy on the innovation performance of the automobile industry during the studied period.Furthermore,we examine the heterogeneous role of the policy in the incumbent and entrant enter-prises of new energy vehicles,as well as the differential effects under different subsidy scenarios.The findings show that:(1)the dual-credit policy significantly increases the proportion of new models of new energy vehicles and reduce the average fuel consumption of traditional vehicles.Therefore,it has the positive impacts to improve energy efficiency of tradi-tional vehicles and promote the innovation performance of new energy vehicles,that effectively drives automotive industry transformation.These findings are robust after the validity test of the model and a series of robustness tests.(2)Along with the tightening of the policy,the energy-saving performance of the policy will be enhanced year by year.However,the effect of the policy on new energy vehicle innovation is sensitive to different approaches to tightening policy.A stepwise tightening approach having positive significance for innovation performance of new energy vehicles,while an intermittent tightening approach will bring about partial performance loss.(3)The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the dual innova-tion performance of the policy will be amplified among latecomers,which is helpful to accelerate the catch-up process of latecomers;in the absence of subsidies,the innovation performance of new energy vehicles will be significantly enhanced,further accelerating the flow of innovation resources to new energy vehicles.Based on the conclusions abovementioned,we recommend that attention be paid to the important role of dual-credit policies in promoting the transformation of the au-tomobile industry.The policy tightening should make a balance between industrial development goals and the supply and demand of the trading market.Optimization and adjustment of policies should consider the differences in resource endow-ment among vehicle manufacturers.
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