Prediction of the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease:A prospective cohort study
Objective To identify risk factors with the onset of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and develop a prediction model for its incidence.Methods 22 702 participants were randomly assigned to the training and the validation set at 70%(n =15 892)and 30%(n = 6 810).A nomogram model for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease was constructed using Lasso-Cox regression.The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve(AUC)was used to assess model discriminability.Results body mass index,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,hyperuricemia,alanine aminotransferase and triglycerides were statistically significant for the onset of nonal-coholic fatty liver disease and were used to construct the nomogram.In the training set,AUC was 0.72,0.73 and 0.73 at 2,3,4 years,respectively.In the validation set,AUC was 0.72,0.74 and 0.76 at 2,3,4 years,re-spectively.Conclusions The nomogram had a good predictive value for the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liv-er disease within 4 years.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
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