Trend analysis and prediction of disease burden of pancreatitis in China,2000-2030
Objective To analyze the change trend of the burden of pancreatitis in China from 2000 to 2019,and predict the future trend to 2030.Methods Data related to the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis in China were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Database.The Joinpoint model was used to calcu-late the average annual percentage change to evaluate the trend of the disease burden of pancreatitis;the age-period-cohort model used to analyze age,period and birth cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of pan-creatitis;the"BAPC"package of R software used to predict the pancreatitis incidence to 2030.Results From 2000 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatitis in China showed a downward trend.The age effects showed an increase in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis with age.The cohort effect showed a decrease in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis from 2000 to 2019.The period effect showed a decrease in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis as the birth cohort progressed.In 2030,the number of cases of pancreatitis in China will continue to rise;the age-standardized incidence rate is expected to increase slightly in males and to decrease slightly in females.Conclusion The age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatitis in China decreased from 2000 to 2019,but the incident cases might continue to increase in the next 10 years.More attention should be paid to risk factors such as alcohol use.
pancreatitisdisease burdenincidencedeathage-period-cohort model
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
