2000-2030年中国胰腺炎疾病负担趋势分析与预测
Trend analysis and prediction of disease burden of pancreatitis in China,2000-2030
黄婧磊 1柴长鹏 2王陈宇 1李晓 1李琎 3申屠晨阳3
作者信息
- 1. 兰州大学第二临床医学院,甘肃 兰州 730000
- 2. 兰州大学第一医院普外科,甘肃 兰州 730000
- 3. 兰州大学第一临床医学院,甘肃 兰州 730000
- 折叠
摘要
目的 分析2000-2019年中国胰腺炎疾病负担变化趋势,预测2020-2030年的发展趋势.方法 下载全球疾病负担数据库中国人群胰腺炎发病和死亡相关数据,应用Joinpoint模型计算平均年度百分比变化评估胰腺炎疾病负担变化趋势,采用年龄—时期—队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列效应对胰腺炎发病率与死亡率的影响,利用 R软件的"BAPC"包对2020-2030年中国人群胰腺炎发病情况进行预测.结果 2000-2019年,中国胰腺炎年龄标准化发病率和死亡率均呈下降趋势.年龄效应显示胰腺炎发病率和死亡率随着年龄增长而增加;队列效应显示2000-2019年胰腺炎发病率和死亡率呈下降趋势;时期效应显示随着出生队列的推移,胰腺炎发病率和死亡率降低.2030年,中国胰腺炎发病人数将继续上升,其中男性年龄标准化发病率预计略有上升,女性略有下降.结论 2000-2019年中国胰腺炎年龄标准化发病率与死亡率呈下降趋势,但2020-2030年胰腺炎发病人数可能上升,应重视饮酒等危险因素对胰腺炎流行病学的影响.
Abstract
Objective To analyze the change trend of the burden of pancreatitis in China from 2000 to 2019,and predict the future trend to 2030.Methods Data related to the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis in China were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Database.The Joinpoint model was used to calcu-late the average annual percentage change to evaluate the trend of the disease burden of pancreatitis;the age-period-cohort model used to analyze age,period and birth cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of pan-creatitis;the"BAPC"package of R software used to predict the pancreatitis incidence to 2030.Results From 2000 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatitis in China showed a downward trend.The age effects showed an increase in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis with age.The cohort effect showed a decrease in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis from 2000 to 2019.The period effect showed a decrease in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis as the birth cohort progressed.In 2030,the number of cases of pancreatitis in China will continue to rise;the age-standardized incidence rate is expected to increase slightly in males and to decrease slightly in females.Conclusion The age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatitis in China decreased from 2000 to 2019,but the incident cases might continue to increase in the next 10 years.More attention should be paid to risk factors such as alcohol use.
关键词
胰腺炎/疾病负担/发病率/死亡率/年龄—时期—队列模型Key words
pancreatitis/disease burden/incidence/death/age-period-cohort model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
甘肃省自然科学基金(23JRRA0929)
兰州大学第一医院院内项目(ldyyyn2019-97)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据