Clinical value of Logistic regression model based on ultrasound and laboratory parameters in predicting esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis
Objective To establish a Logistic regression model based on two-dimensional ultrasound,shear wave elastography and laboratory parameters,and to explore its clinical application value in predicting esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis.Methods A total of 73 patients with liver cirrhosis in our hospital were selected and divided into low-risk(G1 grade)group(14 cases)and high-risk(G2 grade+G3 grade)group(59 cases)according to the gastroscopy results.All patients received two-dimensional ultrasound,shear wave elastography and laboratory examination,and the differences of the above examination results between the two groups were compared.Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent influencing factors of esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis,and a diagnositc model was established.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the model.Results There were significant differences in platelet count,prothrombin time,cholinesterase,plasma albumin,peak systolic velocity of splenic artery,splenic vein diameter,velocity of splenic vein,area of spleen,and mean spleen elasticity between the two groups(all P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that the plasma albumin,splenic vein diameter and mean spleen elasticity were the independent influencing factors of esophageal and gastric varices bleeding in liver cirrhosis(all P<0.05).A Logistic regression model of for predicting esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrnosis was established,the formula was:Logit(P)=2.172+1.4534×mean spleen elasticity+0.396×splenic vein diameter-0.135×plasma albumin.ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.965,the sensitivity was 92.40%,and the specificity was 91.90%.Conclusion The Logistic regression model based on two-dimensional ultrasound,shear wave elastography and serological parameters has good clinical application value in predicting esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis.
UltrasonographyShear wave elastographyEsophageal and gastric varices bleedingCirrhosisLogistic regression
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