首页|老年HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭预后的危险因素及风险预测列线图模型构建

老年HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭预后的危险因素及风险预测列线图模型构建

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目的 探讨老年HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者的临床特点,以及影响患者近期预后的危险因素.方法 选取2015年1月—2023年1月在西部战区总医院收治的417例HBV-ACLF患者进行回顾性研究.收集患者一般情况、血常规、生化指标、肝硬化及失代偿事件情况(腹水及分级,肝性脑病及分级)等临床资料.随访患者90天生存情况.根据年龄将患者分为老年组(≥60岁,n=106)和非老年组(<60岁,n=311),老年组中根据90天生存情况分为生存组(n=41)和死亡或移植组(n=65).定量资料两组间比较采用成组t检验或Mann-Whitney U检验,定性资料两组间比较采用χ2检验.采用二元Logistic回归分析确定老年HBV-ACLF患者90天死亡风险的独立影响因素,构建老年HBV-ACLF患者死亡风险预测列线图模型.使用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)分别评价训练集与验证集中模型对于HBV-ACLF患者转归预测价值.绘制训练集与验证集中所构建模型的校准曲线与决策曲线,判断模型拟合程度与预测收益.结果 老年患者的90天病死率显著高于非老年患者(P<0.05),其中老年组女性发生率、肝硬化基础发生率、肝性脑病发生率及分级、腹水发生率、肝纤维化指标水平(APRI、FIB-4)显著高于非老年组(P值均<0.05);而总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白、白蛋白、甲胎蛋白、淋巴细胞等方面显著低于非老年组(P值均<0.05).在老年HBV-ACLF患者中,生存组与死亡或移植组在总胆固醇、TBil、国际化标准比值(INR)、甲胎蛋白、血小板、肌酐、血清钠、单核细胞数量、肝性脑病发生率及分级等方面存在显著性差异(P值均<0.05).此外,多因素Logistic回归分析提示INR(OR=11.351,95%CI:1.942~66.362)、单核细胞(OR=23.636,95%CI:1.388~402.529)、TBil(OR=1.007,95%CI:1.001~1.013)、血小板(OR=0.968,95%CI:0.945~0.993)为HBV-ACLF老年患者90天预后的独立影响因素(P值均<0.05),由此构建的列线图模型具有较高预测价值(ROC曲线下面积为0.915,敏感度为88.0%,特异度为86.7%),且在验证集中同样具有较高效能与拟合度,决策曲线提示获益较好,该模型与常用预测模型(MELD评分、COSSH-ACLFⅡ评分等)相比,仍具有较高预测效能.结论 老年HBV-ACLF患者可能因肝脏合成、储备功能、再生能力下降、免疫功能紊乱等原因而表现为短期高病死率.INR、单核细胞、TBil、血小板在预测老年HBV-ACLF患者死亡风险方面具有较高价值,由此构建的列线图模型具有较高预测效能.
Risk factors for the prognosis of elderly patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure and construction of a nomogram model for risk prediction
Objective To investigate the clinical features of elderly patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)and the risk factors affecting the short-term prognosis of patients.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for 417 patients with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to The General Hospital of Western Theater Command from January 2015 to January 2023,and related clinical data were collected,including general status,routine blood test results,biochemical parameters,and conditions of liver cirrhosis and decompensated events(ascites,hepatic encephalopathy,and their severities).The patients were followed up to observe 90-day survival.According to the age,the patients were divided into elderly group(with 106 patients aged≥60 years)and non-elderly group(with 311 patients aged<60 years),and according to the 90-day survival,the elderly group were further divided into survival group with 41 patients and death/transplantation group with 65 patients.The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of quantitative data between two groups,and the chi-square test was used for comparison of qualitative data between two groups.The binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent influencing factors for the risk of death within 90 days in elderly patients with HBV-ACLF,and a nomogram model was constructed for predicting the risk of death.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to investigate the value of the model in predicting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients in both the training set and the validation set.Calibration curve and decision curve were plotted for the models constructed in the training set and the validation set,and the model was assessed in terms of the degree of fitness and predicting benefits.Results The elderly patients had a significantly higher 90-day mortality rate than the non-elderly patients(P<0.05),and compared with the non-elderly group,the elderly group had significantly higher incidence rate in female individuals,basic incidence rate of liver cirrhosis,incidence rate and grade of hepatic encephalopathy,incidence rate of ascites,and liver fibrosis markers(aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and fibrosis-4)(all P<0.05),as well as significantly lower total cholesterol,high-density lipoprotein,albumin,alpha-fetoprotein,and lymphocytes(all P<0.05).As for the elderly patients with HBV-ACLF,there were significant differences between the survival group and the death/transplantation group in total cholesterol,total bilirubin,international normalized ratio(INR),alpha-fetoprotein,platelet,creatinine,serum sodium,monocytes,and the incidence rate and grade of hepatic encephalopathy(all P<0.05).In addition,the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that INR(odds ratio[OR]=11.351,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.942-66.362,P<0.05),monocyte count(OR=23.636,95%CI:1.388-402.529,P<0.05),total bilirubin(OR=1.007,95%CI:1.001-1.013,P<0.05),and platelet count(OR=0.968,95%CI:0.945-0.993,P<0.05)were independent influencing factors for the 90-day prognosis of elderly patients with HBV-ACLF,and the nomogram model constructed based on these factors had a relatively high predictive value,with an area under the ROC curve of 0.915,a sensitivity of 88.0%,and a specificity of 86.7%.The nomogram model showed relatively high efficiency and degree of fitness in the verification set,and the decision curve suggested that the model had good benefits,with a higher prediction efficiency compared with the commonly used prediction models such as MELD score and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score.Conclusion Elderly HBV-ACLF patients may have a high short-term mortality rate due to the reductions in liver synthesis,reserve function,and regenerative ability and immune dysfunction.INR,monocyte count,total bilirubin,and platelet count have a relatively high value in predicting the risk of death in elderly HBV-ACLF patients,and the nomogram model constructed based on these factors has a relatively high prediction efficiency.

Acute-On-Chronic Liver FailureAgedNomogramsPrognosis

张仕华、柏承志、李春燕、徐理茂、徐华谦、汤善宏

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西南医科大学附属医院消化内科,四川 泸州 646000

中国人民解放军西部战区总医院消化内科,成都 610083

成都市郫都区人民医院消化内科,成都 611730

西南交通大学医学院,成都 610031

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慢加急性肝功能衰竭 老年人 列线图 预后

四川省卫健委科研课题

20PJ180

2024

临床肝胆病杂志
吉林大学

临床肝胆病杂志

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.428
ISSN:1001-5256
年,卷(期):2024.40(10)