Influence of metabolism-related factors on the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure and establishment of a predictive model
Objective To investigate the influence of metabolism-related factors(overweight and/or obesity,hyperglycemia,hypertension and dyslipidemia)on the 90-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF),and to establish a predictive model.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 365 patients with HBV-ACLF who were hospitalized in Department of Infectious Diseases,The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University,from June 2018 to June 2022,and according to the 90-day follow-up results,they were divided into survival group with 273 patients and death group with 92 patients.General information and related laboratory markers were collected from all patients.The t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between groups,and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distribution continuous data between groups;the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups.A Logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether metabolism-related factors were independent risk factors for the 90-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients,and the Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to investigate the correlation between metabolism-related factors and the 90-day survival rate of HBV-ALCF patients.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)was used to compare the value of different scoring models in predicting the 90-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients.Results The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension(odds ratio[OR]=4.698,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.904-11.593,P=0.001),alanine aminotransferase(OR=0.999,95%CI:0.999-1.000,P=0.010),triglyceride(TG)(OR=4.979,95%CI:2.433-10.189,P＜0.001),high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(OR=0.258,95%CI:0.087-0.762,P=0.012),apolipoprotein B(OR=0.118,95%CI:0.026-0.547,P=0.006),and CLIF-C OF score(OR=2.275,95%CI:1.150-4.502,P＜0.001)were independent influencing factors for the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF.The combined predictive model of metabolism-related factors had a larger AUC than the predictive model of a single factor,among which the predictive model of hypertension+TG+CLIF-C OF score had the largest AUC of 0.886.The patients with metabolism-related factors tended to have higher incidence rate of liver complications and 30-and 90-day mortality rates.Conclusion The presence of the metabolism-related factors such as hypertension and dyslipidemia can increase the severity of HBV-ACLF and the risk of short-term mortality,and the hypertension+TG+CLIF-C OF score predictive model has a good value in predicting the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients.
Hepatitis B virusAcute-On-Chronic Liver FailureMetabolismPrognosis
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