Influence of serum cumulative triglyceride exposure on the risk of acute pancreatitis
Objective To investigate the association between cumulative triglyceride(cumTG)exposure and the risk of acute pancreatitis(AP).Methods A prospective study was conducted for a cohort of 56 883 workers from Kailuan Group who participated in annual physical examination for three consecutive times in 2006-2010(2006,2008,and 2010)and had complete TG data without the medical history of AP.According to the quartiles of cumTG calculated,the subjects were divided into four groups(Q1,Q2,Q3,and Q4 groups),and general information was compared between the two groups.A one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups,and the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of continuous data with skewed distribution between multiple groups;the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curve and calculate the cumulative incidence rate of AP,and the Log-rank test was used for comparison between groups;the Cox regression model was used to analyze the effect of different cumTG levels on new-onset AP events.Results After follow-up for 10.51±1.76 years,there were 158 AP events in total,with a total incidence density of 2.64 per 10 000 person-years,and the number of cases and incidence density in the Q1,Q2,Q3,and Q4 groups were 29 cases(1.93 per 10 000 person-years),34 cases(2.27 per 10 000 person-years),30 cases(2.01 per 10 000 person-years),and 65 cases(4.37 per 10 000 person-years).The Log-rank test showed that there was a significant difference in cumulative incidence rate between groups(χ2=22.41,P<0.001).The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that compared with the Q1 group,the Q4 group had a significantly higher risk of AP(hazard ratio[HR]=1.94,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.20-3.13,P=0.01).Compared with cumulative triglyceride exposure for 0 year,cumulative triglyceride exposure for 4 and 6 years significantly increased the risk of AP,with an HR value of 2.04(95%CI:1.26-3.30,P<0.01)and 3.20(95%CI:1.98-5.17,P<0.01),respectively.After exclusion of the AP cases that occurred during the 2-year follow-up,the repeated multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the Q4 group had an HR value of 1.96(95%CI:1.23-3.12,P<0.01)for the onset of AP,and after exclusion of the death cases during follow-up,the repeated multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the Q4 group had an HR value of 1.85(95%CI:1.10-3.14,P<0.05)for the onset of AP.Conclusion The incidence rate and risk of AP tend to increase with the increase in cumTG exposure.
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