Objective To establish a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of benign thyroid nodules(BTN)after microwave abla-tion,and to verify the predictive efficacy of the model.Methods From January 2020 to December 2022,150 patients who received microwave ablation in Yulin Red Cross Hospital due to BTN were selected and followed up for 1 year to evaluate the efficacy.According to the VRR at 1 year after surgery,the patients were divided into the cured group(VRR＞90％)and the untreated group(VRR ≤90％).Multivariate Logistic regres-sion was used to analyze the influencing factors of BTN patients who did not cure microwave ablation 1 year after microwave ablation.The R lan-guage software rms package were used to establish a nomogram,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used to verify the pre-dictive efficacy of the model.Results Among the 150 BTN patients,the volume of thyroid nodules decreased gradually with the increase of post-operative time,while the VRR increased gradually(P＜0.05).The volume of thyroid nodules were(0.35±0.07)mL,and VRR were(92.62 ±3.45)％at 1 year after surgery.There were statistically significant differences between the cured group and the untreated group in nodule cyst consolidation,nodule location,ablation time per unit volume,Hashimoto thyroiditis and initial nodule volume(P＜0.05).Nodule consolida-tion,nodule location in the danger zone,ablation time per unit volume＞206 s/cm3,Hashimoto's thyroiditis,and initial nodule volume＞5 mL were independent risk factors for BTN patients who were not cured 1 year after microwave ablation(P＜0.05).The area under ROC curve were 0.880,the sensitivity were 72.50％,and the specificity were 87.90％.The nomogram model predicted a good agreement between the risk of non-cure at 1 year after microwave ablation and the actual incidence.Conclusion The prognostic nomogram model built according to the prognostic factors has a good predictive effect on the risk of non-cure 1 year after microwave ablation in BTN patients,and can provide a reference for accu-rately evaluating the prognosis of microwave ablation in BTN patients.
维普
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