毒蛇咬伤致皮肤坏死性感染的危险因素及预测模型研究
Study on risk factors and prediction model of skin necrotic infection caused by venomous snake bites
郝嘉宁 1王宇宏 1王文博 2戴秋婷 3朱明月 1李伦超 1赵晓东 1刘双庆1
作者信息
- 1. 解放军总医院第四医学中心急诊医学科(北京,100037)
- 2. 联勤保障部队天津康复疗养中心内分泌科
- 3. 三峡大学第二临床附属医院心内科
- 折叠
摘要
目的:分析毒蛇咬伤致皮肤坏死性感染的危险因素,并构建预测模型.方法:回顾性分析99例毒蛇咬伤患者的临床资料,确定是否发生皮肤坏死性感染为结局,采用单因素及多因素logistics回归分析构建预测模型并予以验证.结果:蛇伤严重度评分、血糖及D-二聚体水平为毒蛇咬伤致皮肤坏死性感染的危险因素(均P＜0.05).利用上述危险因素构建列线图预测模型,预测发生皮肤坏死性感染的曲线下面积分别为0.92;预测模型的校准曲线在两组中均表现出较好的一致性.结论:蛇伤严重度评分、血糖及D-二聚体水平是毒蛇咬伤后发生皮肤坏死性感染的危险因素,该模型可为临床决策提供参考.
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of skin necrotizing infections caused by venomous snake bites and construct a prediction model.Methods:Clinical data of 99 venomous snake bite patients were retrospectively analyzed to determine whether skin necrotizing infection occurred as an outcome,and predictive model was con-structed and validated using unifactorial and multifactorial logistic regression analysis.Results:Snakebite severity score,blood glucose and D-dimer level were the risk factors of skin necrotizing infections caused by venomous snake bites(all P＜0.05).The area under the curve for predicting the occurrence of skin necrotizing infections was 0.92 using the above risk factors to construct a column-line graph prediction model;the calibration curves of the prediction model showed good consistency in both groups.Conclusion:Snakebite severity score,blood glucose and D-dimer levels are risk factors for the occurrence of skin necrotizing infection after venomous snake bites,and the model can provide a reference for clinical decision-making.
关键词
毒蛇咬伤/坏死性感染/危险因素/预测模型Key words
venomous snake bite/necrotizing infection/risk factor/prediction model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据