动物致伤患者伤口感染危险因素分析及预测模型的建立
Analysis of risk factors for wound infection in animal injury patients and establishment of predictive models
孙春红 1李勇 1闫柏刚1
作者信息
- 1. 重庆医科大学附属第三医院急诊与重症医学中心(重庆,401120)
- 折叠
摘要
目的:分析动物致伤患者伤口感染的危险因素,并构建预测模型.方法:回顾性收集2020年10月—2022年12月收治的649例动物致伤患者临床资料,根据患者是否发生创面感染分为感染组和未感染组,分析动物致伤患者伤口感染的影响因素,并构建回归方程,采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析回归方程的预测价值.结果:年龄≥51.5岁、受伤至清创时间≥ 6.5 h、受伤部位为手足、糖尿病是动物致伤患者伤口感染的独立危险因素,根据多因素分析结果构建回归方程及预测概率绘制ROC曲线,当Logit(P)＞0.2043时,AUC为0.930(95％CI:0.897～0.964),约登指数为0.759,灵敏度为86.0％,特异度为89.9％.结论:动物致伤患者伤口感染的独立危险因素包括年龄≥51.5岁、受伤至清创时间≥6.5 h、受伤部位为手足、糖尿病,相关回归方程对动物致伤患者伤口感染的预测价值较好,为动物致伤患者伤口感染高危因素进行个体化评估治疗提供了依据.
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of wound infection in patients with animal injuries and to es-tablish a predictive model.Methods:The clinical data of 649 patients with animal-injury from October 2020 to De-cember 2022 were retrospectively collected.The patients were divided into infection group(n=86)and non-infec-tion group(n=563)based on whether they experienced wound infection.The influencing factors of wound infec-tion in patients with animal injury were analyzed,and the regression equation was constructed.The predictive val-ue of the regression equation was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results:Age≥ 51.5 years old,time from injury to debridement ≥6.5 hours,hand and foot injuries,and diabetes were independent risk factors for wound infection in patients with animal injuries.Regression equations were constructed based on the results of multivariate analysis and ROC curves were drawn with prediction probability.When Logit(P)＞0.2043,AUC was 0.930(95％CI:0.897-0.964),Youden index was 0.759,sensitivity was 86.0％,and speci-ficity was 89.9％.Conclusion:The independent risk factors of wound infection in animal injured patients include age≥51.5 years old,time from injury to debridement ≥ 6.5 hours,injured parts are hands and feet,and diabe-tes.The correlation regression equation has a good predictive value for wound infection in animal injured patients,providing a basis for individualized evaluation and treatment of high-risk factors of wound infection in animal in-jured patients.
关键词
动物致伤/伤口感染/危险因素/预测模型Key words
animal injury/wound infection/risk factors/predictive models引用本文复制引用
基金项目
重庆市科技局技术创新与应用发展项目(cstc2020jscxmsxmX0160)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据