Objective To analyze and screen risk factors for intracranial aneurysm rupture,and establish a new predictive model using the screened risk factors.Methods The study included 151 eligible patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms and 211 non ruptured patients from 2019 to 2024 in Department of Neurosurgery,Chengdu Pidu District People's Hospital as the research subjects.Through data analysis,logistic multiple regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors for ruptured intracranial aneurysms.A new prediction model was constructed using R language and presented using column charts and logistic formulas.Results Logistic multivariate analysis showed that age(OR=0.932,95％CI=0.905-0.96,P＜0.001),history of hypertension(OR=2.969,95％CI=1.403-6.28,P=0.004),history of smoking(OR=5.656,95％CI=2.703-11.836,P＜0.001),intracranial atherosclerosis and stenosis(OR=22.398,95％CI=1.687-6.727,P＜0.001),warning headache(OR=3.369,95％CI=11.068-45.325,P＜0.001),diameter of tumor neck(OR=1.356,95％CI=1.082-1.7,P=0.001 8),tumor length/diameter of parent artery(OR=2.201,95％CI=1.487-3.257,P＜0.001)were independent risk factors for intracranial aneurysm rupture.The probability formula of the new prediction model is Log it(y)=-7.165-0.07 × age+1.088 × hypertension history+1.733 × intracranial atherosclerosis and stenosis+3.109 × warning headache+0.305 × tumor neck diameter+0.789 × tumor body length/diameter of the parent artery.Conclusions Age,hypertension history,intracranial atherosclerosis and stenosis,warning headache,tumor neck diameter,tumor length/carrier artery diameter(SR value)are independently related to intracranial aneurysm rupture,and a new prediction model of intracranial aneurysm rupture has been obtained by using risk factors.The risk and probability of intracranial aneurysm rupture can be calculated through nomogram and formula,which is worthy of clinical research.
维普
万方数据
