Objective To investigate the efficacy of serum uric acid(BUA),fibrinogen(FIB)and red blood cell distribution width(RDW)in predicting the risk of acute attack of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Methods A prospective study was conducted on 159 patients with stable COPD treated from January 2022 to January 2023.The pa-tients were followed up for six months after enrollment and divided into the attack group(n =48)and the non-attack group(n =111)according to occurrence of acute attack.The Logistic regression equation of acute attack risk of COPD was estab-lished by comparing BUA,FIB and RDW in the two groups.Stata 10.0 software was used to determine the optimal critical value and prediction accuracy of combined detection of BUA,FIB and RDW in terms of the maximum Yoden index.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to analyze the value of BUA,FIB,RDW and combined equations in predicting acute attack of COPD,and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was used to evaluate the predictive ability.Results BUA,FIB and RDW in attack group were higher than those in non-attack group(P＜0.01).The increase in BUA,FIB and RDW were independent risk factors for COPD exacerbation(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).The optimal critical value of BUA and FIB com-bined with RDW was 0.101,and the prediction accuracy was 98.25%.ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of combined equation in prediction was0.939,which was greater than that predicted by BUA(0.795),FIB(0.798)and RDW(0.701)alone(P＜0.05).The significance test of the Logistic global regression equation showed that F =44.305 and R2 =0.820,sug-gesting that the established regression equation had statistical significance and a good fit.Conclusion Elevated BUA,FIB and RDW are risk factors associated with acute attack of stable COPD,and the combined detection of the three may be a reliable scheme for predicting acute attack,providing an objective basis for accurate stratified clinical management of stable COPD.
维普
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