Diagnostic prediction model for the risk of heart failure after PCI for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Wuhan:a case-control study
Objective To analyze the risk factors of heart failure(HF)after emergency percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI)in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI)and to construct a predictive model.Methods The clinical data of 715 patients with STEMI admitted in the emergency department of the Central Hospital of Wuhan from August 2017 to May 2023 were retrospectively collected.According to the ratio of 7:3,503 patients were used as training set and 212 patients were used as validation set.Lasso regression and Logistic regression were used to construct the prediction model of HF in STEMI patients,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)was used to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the nomogram model.Results After Lasso regression and Logistic regression screening,age,proportion of hypertension history,proportion of admission to CCU,hospital stay,time from onset to admission,and D-dimer(DD)were the influencing factors of HF in STEMI patients(P<0.05).The prediction model was constructed,and the Cutoff=0.094 and area under curve(AUC)=0.966 of the training set ROC were visualized by nomogram.The validation set was used to verify the model internally.The De Long test showed that there was no significant difference in the AUC of the ROC curve between the training set and the validation set(P>0.05),and the assignment score and trend of the nomogram of the validation set were basically the same as those of the training set.Conclusion This study successfully constructed a predictive model for HF in STEMI patients after PCI,with good diagnostic efficacy and promotion.
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