Objective To analyze the risk factors of poor prognosis of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacter in elderly patients with pulmonary infection and to establish a predictive model.Methods The clinical data of 404 elderly inpatients(≥60 years old)with positive sputum culture of pulmonary infection in 5 hospitals in Anhui Province was retrospectively analyzed.Three hospitals were selected according to the ratio of about 7:3 in the original data then select-ed their patients as the training set with a total of 294 samples,and the remaining two hospitals were included as the vali-dation set with a total of 110 samples.The independent risk factors of poor prognosis in elderly patients with CRE pulmo-nary infection were analyzed by LASSO regression and COX multivariate regression model.The patients in training set were divided into low-risk group and high-risk group according to the independent risk factors.The prognostic prediction model was established and verified by R(4.2.1)software according to the independent risk factors and risk groups.Re-sults Tracheal intubation,gastric tube placement,malnutrition,Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and shock were the independent risk factors for poor prognosis of pulmonary infection in elderly patients with CRE(all P＜0.05).The prediction model was constructed and verified by the 5 risk factors and risk grouping.The verification results showed that:The area under the ROC curve of training set and validation set were 0.821 and 0.806 respectively,which indicated that the model had good diagnostic ability.The calibration curve analysis showed that the model fitted well.The decision curve analysis showed that the model was beneficial.Conclusions The probability of poor prognosis in elderly patients with CRE pulmonary infection can be individually predicted by nomogram model.
维普
万方数据
