Carbon Storage Assessment and Potential Prediction of Bamboo Products in China Based on IPCC First-order Decay Method and Prophet Model
[Objective]Bamboo has a fast growth rate and a short harvest cycle,so bamboo products have advantages in carbon sequestration.However,there is little research on its carbon sequestration ability,so it's urgent to evaluate the carbon stocks of bamboo products,which can explore its future carbon sequestration potential.[Method]This study calculates the carbon storage of bamboo products based on bamboo yield data(1961-2018)by combining the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)first-order decay method and life cycle analysis method.The carbon storage of bamboo products is further divided into in-use and disposal parts.The Prophet time series model is used to predict bamboo yield until 2060 to evaluate their contribution to China's dual carbon goals.Meanwhile,the accumulated carbon storage of bamboo products in the five provinces with the largest bamboo output during 1992 to 2018 is calculated and compared.[Result]Bamboo products in China are an important and increasing carbon sink.1)For the in-use stage,annual CO2 fixation of bamboo product in China increased from 1.45 Tg CO2-eq in 1961 to 53.91 Tg CO2-eq in 2018.During 1961 to 2018,the accumulated CO2 fixation amount of in-use bamboo products was 479.23 Tg CO2-eq.In 2018,the annual CO2 fixation amount of disposed bamboo products was 14.41 Tg CO2-eq,and the accumulated CO2 fixation amount of disposed bamboo products during 1961 to 2018 was 188.47 Tg CO2-eq.In total,CO2 fixation amount of bamboo product in China was 68.32 Tg CO2-eq in 2018,and the accumulated CO2 fixation amount during 1961 to 2018 was 667.70 Tg CO2-eq.2)According to the Prophet model prediction,in 2030,the fixed CO2 of bamboo products in our country was 82.75 Tg CO2-eq,in 2060 it was 133.27 Tg CO2-eq,CO2 fixation amount of bamboo products will reach to 1546.48 Tg CO2-eq from 1961 to 2018,and will reach to 5434.98 Tg CO2-eq by 2060 in China.3)Additionally,in terms of provincial distribution,the top five provinces with the largest bamboo output during 1992 to 2018 are Fujian,Guangxi,Zhejiang,Yunnan and Guangdong,and the accumulated CO2 fixation amount of bamboo products were 162.28 Tg CO2-eq,108.20 Tg CO2-eq,70.51 Tg CO2-eq,66.18 Tg CO2-eq and 52.31 Tg CO2-eq respectively.[Conclusion]Bamboo products play an important role in carbon sequestration of woody forest products in China,with strong capacity and huge potential in carbon sequestration.This study has laid an important foundation for promoting the bamboo-related carbon sink to be included in the internationally recognized forestry carbon sink accounting system,which is beneficial to develop the advantages of bamboo resources in China and further strengthen the protection and utilization of bamboo forest ecosystem.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
