Effects of heat waves on heat stroke in Shanghai,2013-2023
[Background]The substantial health damage attributed to heat waves,along with their increasing intensity and frequency in the context of global warming,highlights the importance of exploring the health effects of heat waves.[Objective]To calculate the excess heat stroke cases during heat waves in the summer of 2013-2023 in Shanghai,analyze the association between heat waves and heat stroke,and to further explore the modifying effects of heat wave characteristics on heat stroke.[Methods]Using a retrospective ecological study design,data on heat stroke cases were collected from the heat stroke case reporting system of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Pre-vention,and concurrent meteorological data from Xujiahui Meteorological Station.A heat wave was defined as at least 3 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature meeting or exceeding 35℃in this study,excess heat stroke cases related to heat waves were assessed as the difference between the numbers of heat stroke cases observed on a given day and the corresponding 31 d(15 d before and after that day)moving average,and statistical analyses using generalized linear model based on time series study were performed to assess the impact of heat waves on heat stroke.[Results]Overall 25 heat waves during the study period were observed,leading to a total of esti-mated 792.6 extra heat stroke cases.The risk of heat stroke significantly increased during heat waves(RR=2.60,95%CI:2.08,3.26),but no statistically significant differences in heat wave effects were observed among different gen-ders,ages,or regions.In terms of the timing of heat waves,the risk of heat stroke was highest during the first heat wave(RR=3.58,95%CI:2.82,4.55),which was significantly higher than that during the second heat wave(RR=2.19,95%CI:1.66,2.90),and no significant effect was observed during the third or subsequent heat waves.The impact of heat waves on heat stroke persisted for more than 4 d,with the risk higher on the fourth day and beyond(RR=2.95,95%CI:2.28,3.83),significantly higher than on the first day of heat wave(RR=1.74,95%CI:1.18,2.56).[Conclusion]Heat waves had a substantial effect on heat stroke in Shanghai from 2013 to 2023,and special attention need to be paid to heat waves with early onset and long duration.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
