辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.43Issue(1) :10-19.DOI:10.11956/j.issn.1008-0562.2024.01.002

青海黄河流域泥石流空间格局和趋势预估

Spatial pattern and prediction of debris flow in the Yellow River basin of Qinghai

张地 张岩 杨海明 李延福 谢东武 徐啸川
辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.43Issue(1) :10-19.DOI:10.11956/j.issn.1008-0562.2024.01.002

青海黄河流域泥石流空间格局和趋势预估

Spatial pattern and prediction of debris flow in the Yellow River basin of Qinghai

张地 1张岩 1杨海明 1李延福 1谢东武 2徐啸川3
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作者信息

  • 1. 青海省有色第三地质勘查院,青海 西宁 810000
  • 2. 同济大学 土木工程学院,上海 200092
  • 3. 中国地质大学(武汉) 工程学院,湖北 武汉 430074
  • 折叠

摘要

为揭示青海黄河流域泥石流空间格局和易发性变化趋势,利用耦合地理探测器的信息量模型量化控制因子对研究区泥石流的空间解释力和不同极端降雨情景下泥石流的易发性.研究结果表明:泥沙连通度、大于10 mm降雨日数、连续3日最大降雨量和地层岩性是决定泥石流空间格局的关键因子.当前情景下泥石流极高和高易发区主要集中在东北部和中部的陡峭山区;极端降雨情境下,极高和高易发性的新增区域主要集中在北部、南部山地以及中部的阿尼玛卿雪山两侧.研究结果可为该地区的泥石流防灾减灾工作提供参考.

Abstract

To unveil the spatial patterns and susceptibility trends of debris flows in the Yellow River Basin in Qinghai Province,an information value coupling with Geodetector(Geo-IM)was employed to quantify the spatial explanatory power of disaster-inducing factors and the susceptibility of debris flows in the study area under different extreme rainfall scenarios.The result show that sediment connectivity,the number of days with>10 mm rainfall,maximum rainfall in three consecutive days,and lithology are critical factors determining the spatial patterns of debris flows.In the current scenario,areas with extremely high and high susceptibility to debris flows are primarily concentrated in the steep mountainous regions of the northeast and central parts.Under extreme rainfall scenarios,newly added areas with extremely high and high susceptibility are mainly concentrated in the northern and southern mountainous regions,as well as on both sides of the Aemye Ma-chhen Range in the central area.The research results can provide a reference for disaster prevention and reduction efforts related to debris flows in this region.

关键词

泥石流易发性/极端降雨/地理探测器/信息量模型/青海黄河流域

Key words

debris flow susceptibility/extreme rainfall/Geodetector/information value model/the Yellow River basin of Qinghai

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金(41977227)

湖北省重点研发计划(2021BCA219)

出版年

2024
辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版)
辽宁工程技术大学

辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.722
ISSN:1008-0562
参考文献量30
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