To achieve the model construction and strategy selection of carbon emissions under the constraints of limited data information,this study explores the inherent laws underlying the evolution of different population models from the perspective of natural population growth,obstructive population changes constrained by environmental and other conditions,population changes considering age structure and population development in the form of partial differential equations on the basis of systematic analysis of population factors and their impact on changes in social environment and material level,then an equivalent substitution function is obtained according to the homotopy transformation idea in topology,so that the problem can be dealt with in a unified way.The results show that the extended STIRPAT model has a better fitting effect,and using Markov process to reverse adjust and correct the influencing factor which is predicted by population evolution model before yields more accurate prediction results.The idea of analyzing carbon emissions based on population changes also provides an effective method for dealing with related problems.
关键词
碳排放/人口变化/同伦变换/Markov过程/扩展的STIRPAT模型
Key words
carbon emissions/population changes/homotopy transformation/Markov process/extended STIRPAT model
维普
万方数据