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新发展格局下中国粮食安全面临的风险挑战及其治理

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当代中国粮食供求紧平衡态势将长期存在,但受国内外风险因素叠加影响,这种紧平衡态势很可能因某种因素突出而被暂时打破,粮食短缺局面将持续数年时间才有可能恢复到紧平衡状态.国内外风险挑战目前主要涉及如下几个方面:显性耕地数量质量仍齐降,隐性耕地有遭毁风险;自然灾害风险有加重趋势,病虫害呈现频发态势;农民种粮意愿仍继续降低,"非粮化"压力偏大;粮食贸易的不可控性大增,全球供应链频繁遭冲;粮食应急保障体系有短板,乡镇村社能力较脆弱;粮食购销风险隐患顽疾多,数量质量须持续关注.此外,水资源供需矛盾持续凸显、育种全链条创新明显不足、农机研发及应用距离世界先进水平仍有差距、化肥农药物品投入强度高但资源利用效率比较低、基层农技推广人员数量不足和素质有待提升、粮食隐形浪费现象还不同程度存在甚至有反弹风险、粮食供应难以满足居民消费提档升级需求等风险也不容忽视.在这众多风险挑战中,国内因素应对风险准备不足是最重要因素.防范粮食安全保障风险,既要有底线思维以保最基本民生,又要有目标追求以夯实社会主义现代化强国的根基.围绕"全方位夯实粮食安全根基"总要求,具体治理建议是:贯彻落实好《粮食安全保障法》,以宪法为中心完善粮食安全法体系;全方位夯实粮源汇集之根基,持续巩固多渠道稳定汇集粮源能力;全方位提升粮食供应之能力,畅通粮食保供环节"最后一公里";全方位筑牢粮食安全之屏障,明确把粮食安全纳入公益诉讼范围.
Risk challenges and governance strategies to China's food security under the new development pattern
The tight balance between food supply and demand in contemporary China will exist for a long time,but due to the superimposed influence of domestic and foreign risk factors,this tight balance is likely to be temporarily broken because of some factors that stand out,and the food shortage situation will last for several years before it is possible to return to a tight balance.Risks and challenges at home and abroad are mainly related to the following aspects:the quantity and quality of visible arable land is still declining,and hidden arable land is at risk of being destroyed;the risk of natural disasters has a tendency to aggravate,and pests and diseases are frequent;farmers'willingness to grow food is still decreasing,and the pressure of"non-food"is high;the uncontrollability of food trade is increasing,and the global supply chain is frequently affected by shocks;there is a shortcoming in the food emergency security system,and the capacity of townships and villages and societies is relatively fragile;there are a lot of hidden and persistent problems in the purchase and sale of food,and the quality of the food should be given sustained attention.In addition,these risks should not be ignored,including the continued contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources,the obvious lack of innovation in the whole chain of breeding,the gap be-tween the research and development and application of agricultural machinery and the world's advanced level,the high intensity of inputs of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,but the efficiency of resource use is relatively low,the number of grass-roots agricultural extension workers is insufficient while their quality needs to be upgraded,and the phenomenon of invisible waste of food is still present in varying degrees and even the risk of a rebound,and the supply of food is difficult to meet the needs of the population's consumption upgrade.Among these many risks and challenges,the lack of domestic preparedness to deal with them is the most important factor.Preventing the risk of food security guarantees requires both bottom-line thinking to protect the most basic people's liveli-hoods and goal-seeking to strengthen the foundation of a strong socialist modernized country.Focusing on the general requirement of"strengthening the foundation of food security in all aspects",the specific governance recommendations are as follows:implement the Food Security Law,and improve the food security law system centered on the constitution;strengthen the foundation of gathering food sources in all aspects,and continue to consolidate the ability to gather food sources through multiple channels in a stable manner;enhance the ability to supply food in all aspects,and smooth out the"last kilometer"of the food supply chain;and build up the barriers of food security in all aspects,and explicitly include food security in the scope of public-interest lawsuits.

food securityrisk challengesrule of law

穆中杰

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河南工业大学 粮食政策与法律研究所,河南 郑州 450000

粮食安全 风险挑战 法治

国家粮食和物资储备局软科学研究计划(2023)

国粮办发[2023]109号

2024

粮食科技与经济
湖南省粮食经济科技学会 中诸粮管理总公司湖南分公司

粮食科技与经济

影响因子:0.505
ISSN:1007-1458
年,卷(期):2024.49(1)
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