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农机社会化服务对农地"趋粮化"的门槛效应研究

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稳定农地粮食种植面积是确保粮食安全的重要途径,农机社会服务与农地"趋粮化"直接相关,因此有必要对农机社会化服务对农地"趋粮化"的影响效应进行深入研究.基于 2007-2022 年中国省级面板数据,运用固定效应模型和面板门槛模型,实证分析农机社会化服务对农地"趋粮化"的非线性影响.研究发现:农机社会化服务对农地"趋粮化"的影响存在基于收入水平下的双门槛效应,当农村居民收入水平低于 6 276.25 元时,农机社会化服务对农地"趋粮化"的影响显著为负;当农村居民收入水平介于6 276.25 元和 10 619.40 元之间时,农机社会化服务对农地"趋粮化"的影响作用提升;而当农村居民收入水平高于 10 619.40 元时,农机社会化服务对农地"趋粮化"的影响程度最大.因此,为了稳定农地粮食种植比例,应该积极完善农业政策,大力推动农机社会化服务水平,提高农民收入以及对不同地区实施差异化补贴政策.
Research on the threshold effect of agricultural machinery socialization service on the grain-oriented of farmland
Stabilizing the grain planting area of farmland is an important way to ensure food security,and the social service of agricultural machinery is directly related to the grain-oriented of farmland,so it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the influence of agricultural machinery socialization service on the grain-oriented of farmland.Based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2022 in China,this paper empirically analyzes the nonlinear impact of agricultural machinery socialization services on the grain-oriented trend of farmland by utilizing the fixed-effect model and the panel threshold model.The results indicate that the impact exhibits a double threshold effect based on income levels.When the rural resident's income level is lower than 6 276.25 yuan,the socialized service of ag-riculture machinery has a significant negative impact on the grain-oriented of farmland.When the rural resident's income level was between 6 276.25 yuan and 10 619.40 yuan,the influence of agricultural machinery socialization service on the grain-oriented of farmland was enhanced,and when the rural resident's income level was higher than 10 619.40 yuan,the impact of agricultural machinery socialization service on the grain-oriented of farmland was the greatest.Therefore,in order to stabilize the proportion of grain planting in farmland,it is necessary to actively improve agricultural policies,vigorously promote the socialized service level of agricultural machinery,increase farmers'income,and implement differentiated subsidy policies for different regions.

socialized services for agricultural machinerygrain-orientedfixed-effect modelpanel sill model

杨新怀、赵晓燕

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河南财经政法大学 工程管理与房地产学院,河南 郑州 450046

农机社会化服务 趋粮化 固定效应模型 面板门槛模型

2024

粮食科技与经济
湖南省粮食经济科技学会 中诸粮管理总公司湖南分公司

粮食科技与经济

影响因子:0.505
ISSN:1007-1458
年,卷(期):2024.49(3)