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宽泛统计口径和特殊统计技巧掩盖下台湾地区粮食对外依赖分析

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台湾作为拥有2 300多万人口的省份,由于耕地面积有限,粮食对外依赖度高达七成,粮农组织资料显示台湾地区每年粮食进口量高达 800 万~900 万t.为了让粮食自给率数值较为可观,台湾地区在统计时特意选择比较宽泛的口径来计算.根据台湾地区"行政院"农业委员会统计室 2012-2021 年的数据,对台湾地区采取的特殊计算方法下的粮食自给率进行分析,揭示了台湾地区宽泛统计口径下依然难掩粮食对外依赖的长期趋势和现实,深入剖析台湾地区粮食进出口的时空和品种结构,并细分统计台湾地区农产品进出口流向和金额,根据以上数据与结论对近未来时段台湾地区粮食贸易的演化趋势做出分析与预测,以及台海作为地缘政治热点地区的粮食进口前景.
Analysis of Taiwan's extreme external food dependence under the cover of broad statistical caliber and special statistical techniques
As a province with a population of more than 23 million,Taiwan's food dependence on the outside world is as high as 70%due to the limited area of arable land,and FAO data shows that Taiwan imports between 8 and 9 million tons of food annually.In order to make the value of the food self-sufficiency rate more impressive,Tai-wan deliberately chooses a broader caliber for calculation when conducting statistics.This paper analyzed the food self-sufficiency rate under the special calculation method adopted by Taiwan based on the data from the Statistics Office of the Council of Agriculture of Executive Yuan from 2012 to 2021,revealing the long-term trend and reality of Taiwan's external dependence on food that was still difficult to hide under the broad statistical caliber,analyzing the spatial-temporal and varietal structure of Taiwan's food imports and exports,and providing a breakdown of the import and export flows of Taiwan's agricultural products and their amounts.Based on the above data and conclu-sions,it analyzed and predicted the evolution trend of Taiwan's grain trade in the near-future timeframe,as well as the prospects of grain imports in the Taiwan Strait as a geopolitical hotspot.

Taiwanfood self-sufficiencyfood import and export

许天成、李书琪、陈会玲

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武汉轻工大学 经济学院,湖北 武汉 430048

台湾地区 粮食自给率 粮食进出口

2024

粮食科技与经济
湖南省粮食经济科技学会 中诸粮管理总公司湖南分公司

粮食科技与经济

影响因子:0.505
ISSN:1007-1458
年,卷(期):2024.49(4)